I have been thinking about this topic for some time as Russia opening up the impossible Northern Sea Route taking on the Suez Canal is not the headline story. The headline we have to pay attention to is what is available in the region that Russia can sell and increase their GDP. Liquefied natural gas and coal plus Hydrogen is the answer and everything else is a smoke screen. Russia plans to have 20% of the global natural gas market by 2035 and that is a distinct possibility. The Northern Sea route will play a crucial role in achieving those targets.
Already we can see the energy sector expanding in Russia as that is where the country's future now lies. There is going to be an abundance of jobs being created turning cities like Murmansk into boom towns through new wealth and opportunities.
Russia needs the Northern Sea Route to remain open 365 days per year in order to do business. The idea of having the bulk of international shipping use this route is not going to happen immediately if ever. The key players that Russia needs to use it are the ones who need their resources and for that reason keeping the route open is a must do. If the route is open then other ships may as well use it even though many are skeptical about how many months realistically per year that is possible.
The Russians have shown their hand already with escalating gas prices across Europe. One would have to be extremely naïve to think that this was not part of the plan. Natural gas over the last 6 months has tripled in value and Russia by supplying smaller quantities has inflated those prices. Europe relies heavily on Russia and are literally screwed if they don't get supplies from them.
Just think if you can manipulate the markets so easily all of a sudden the untapped wealth below the Arctic Sea and Northern Sea Route has just increased in value by over 300%. This is only part of the reasoning behind this as Russia is becoming a major player again in the world economy. Russia has the largest Natural Gas reserves in the world having almost double what the rest have combined.
Another is to force the European regulators to open up the second pipeline between Russia and Germany called the Nord Stream II. The Nord Stream 1 is already operational and was having some down time for maintenance and upgrades. This is all part of the plan to force peoples hands and why doing business with Russia is like playing Russian roulette. This caused a shortage in Europe as Germany exports this gas they receive across Europe. Regulators up until this point have not allowed the Nord Stream II to go operational and could be forced to do just that. Winter is coming and the Russians know Europe has no choice but to agree to use the second pipeline. Russia gets their way and prices drop but Russia still wins what they wanted and that was 2 pipelines being operational.
There is a lot more at play here than it seems as it is not just about the Nord Stream 11, but what is stands for. The US would lose it's gas export market in Europe plus many other countries that export there as well would be cut off as Russia would be the dominant supplier.