BTC crashed from 57k to 42k today, and now HIVE has plunged below $2 again. Here is why I recently decided to keep my tokens powered up!
I realize that's not a lot of tokens compared to some people - officially, there are currently 700 accounts with more. But for me, 47000 Canadian dollars (current value of 17500 HIVE) would be a lot of currency.
See, I recently asked my readers for advice and information, as I tried to decide how to proceed after HIVE jumped to $3. At that price and above, I have enough to pay off a large debt to my ex/the state, which would release several major shackles that have been in place on my life for about a decade. Since the sudden jump from 80 cents to $3 happened so quickly, after such a long and depressing sideways grind, many were caught off guard. A clump of massive powerdowns were begun, set to begin going liquid yesterday.
After scrutinizing charts and fundamentals for a couple days, and weighing advice I received from my viewers, I decided powering down made logical sense, since it seemed the price might be exploding.
What changed my mind
I was set to dish out one last round of $2 upvotes, and then start the big power down, when I got busy with my toddler and had to put it off until morning.
At that point, the chart had dropped somewhat. I had another look at things, and noticed that in just a couple days those huge powerdowns were going to become liquid, and some major selling might take place. Maybe it's not quite time for that "moonshot"? I hesitated over the powerdown button.
Then the big fall from $3 began, and yesterday was a big long slide, and now today we're falling right off the cliff to 1.5 USD.
If I had powered down when I intended to, I would still have 4 days until I could think about selling it. Yes, maybe that was actually the right thing to do (depending on my specific situation, needs, risk tolerance, etc). After all, I revealed a bit of personal info (and financial strategy) in my recent posts on this topic, and possibly started a clock against myself. So getting my hands on those funds (cashing out) sooner rather than later might be a good idea.
Thought experiment... "What if?"
HIVE goes back down to 60 cents or whatever again - Damn, that sucks. But at least now my stack isn't really worth coming after, anymore (ex, lawyers, state, taxes, blah blah blah). I guess I go back to grinding and hoping for the future, like I've been doing 4+ years. I see this as the least likely outcome.
HIVE settles down to a new baseline around $1 to $2 - I see this as somewhat likely. It would be a somewhat decent outcome for me. I wouldn't quite have enough to pay off my debt in full right away, but it would be enough that I could continue to put out quality original content on my blog, grow my reader/curation base, and pull out a couple grand a month from my payouts. That's within the realm of probability. I could significantly pay down debts month by month. Unfortunately, I don't know if the world is going to hold together that long. The global Covid tyranny is spreading very quickly right now. Many people in my area believe we don't even have until spring before Canadians are being taken away to concentration camps.
HIVE goes to $3 and beyond - I think this is also quite likely. Once again, the total value of my tokens would make it possible to sell them for cash, set aside some for taxes, and pay off my debt in full. That would open up other doors for me, in addition to just being out of debt. And I could continue to blog and earn on the blockchain (just with less HP). It would be the best outcome for me.
So it appears that I'm betting against myself, by not powering down. My best outcome is HIVE going above $3, so I'm not powering down? Makes no sense.
My intuition tells me that HIVE is going to shine, but maybe just not quite yet. If I had been powering down BEFORE all this happened, and beat the whales to it, then maybe I could have sold near $3, and that would have made a difference in my life. But that's just not what happened. The whales were already days ahead of me. At least I smelled the trap, and didn't follow with a late powerdown.
So now what?
Like I said, I think HIVE is going well above $3. I don't know when, but I'm banking on it being before the world comes crashing down, EMP strikes take out the internet, and so forth. Preferably in the next few months.
Is that suicidal, though? Cryptos are done their bull run after this month, aren't they? It's another 4 years wait now, right?
See, I don't really know if that's true anymore. I believe the 4 year crypto bull/market market pattern - which I was one of the first analysts to spot - is over. That's why I'm retiring as "Bitcoin Seer"... because I think the predictable pattern I've been using won't be in play much longer.
Speaking of BTC, the chart isn't really that bad, if you zoom out a bit:
Bitcoin pulls back, we know this. And maybe this was even technically expected. Or technically bullish. Maybe it's putting in a higher low? You never know, Christmas could still be a wild blowoff top, like it has in many past years.
So no, I don't think HIVE will be down for long. It's not my moment to cash out, but that will be coming. Thank you to all my readers for their advice, info and support! I still absolutely believe this is going to turn into a success story for me. Just not THIS week! : D
DRutter
