HIVE could be headed over 10 USD in the next few weeks, if price action continues to follow the 2017 chart. Heading into December 2017, this blockchain's currency was leaving the $1 range and heading above $2. Now in late November 2021, we have finally consolidated the $1 level and have just broken $2 for the first time, now sitting at 2.3 USD. What could be in store for the end of the year?
Two things to notice about that chart. First, it took a full month for the price to peak once it left the $1 level. HIVE similarly left that level about a week ago. And second, there was a move up to $4, another consolidation, and then a final spike to $8.
Of course, we shouldn't expect an exact repeat performance. Sure, there are many similarities between the chart then and now. And yes, we're in the same point of the 4 year bull market cycle. HIVE is currently technically bullish on medium and longterm timeframes. And there are games and projects absolutely taking off right now. So there are legitimate reasons to believe the chart will at least echo the performance seen 4 years ago.
This 14 day chart shows the liftoff from the $1 range a week ago, the spike to 3.4 a few days ago, and now the resulting consolidation.
Yes, there's a chance the bull market is over for HIVE, but that seems quite unlikely. Since this pump came essentially out of nowhere, surprising many of us even if we were paying attention, and it is independent of BTC's price action, there's no indication we're at the top. Besides, we're 10 times the chain we were 4 years ago... shouldn't we at least break that previous high?!
What seems more likely is that we're consolidating for another bump up, just like in 2017. Perhaps a break of 3.4 to test 5 USD, consolidate over the Christmas break, and then a final surge above that old $8 high to somewhere betwen $10 and $20.
An informed guess:
Looks similar to the 2017 chart. There's no telling what that ultimate peak will be. And there's no telling if HIVE will retreat in January 2022, as STEEM did in January 2018. Maybe it will continue acting independently of the other cryptos, climbing up the crypto market cap list back into the top 100?
My situation
I'm currently trying to make a decision regarding my fiances. Normally a very private person, I recently opened up and shared my situation, asking my readers for advice and information.
In short, the value of my earned HIVE (which I have powered up and saved for more than 4 years now) has reached an amount that could potentially allow me to pay off a large and crippling personal debt (to my ex wife, with state involvement). At $3, I have about 70000 CAD worth of the stuff, about the amount I need. If I can pull this off, I'll regain the ability to own vehicles, renew my driver's license, obtain a passport, have a bank account, use PayPal, and so on.
My balls will be free of the vice, essentially. I won't be made whole again, by any means, but I'll be able to move about, breathe, and begin rebuilding my life.
It's possible my ex could be watching my HIVE wallet. If so, she will have noticed that it went from a few thousand dollars in value to tens of thousands in just the past few weeks. And if she's reading my posts (hi!), she knows that this is the first time I've had serious money in many years. And she knows it has taken me 4 years of nonstop hard work, sacrifice, and risk to make it happen. I've never been trying to keep money from her. This is legitimately the first time I've managed to get my hands on some, and I'm already working on a way to get it to her. Despite a lack of communication for years, and despite the fact that she and our 2 children are both extremely well off, and despite the fact that I've been homeless and currently have unmet needs, I still want to do this.
That said, HIVE at $2 is not going to cut it. It's awesome, but it doesn't pay off my debt.
Which is why I'm looking at these charts so hard. I've been pouring over this all day, drawing it up from different angles, running the scenarios through my head, doing pros and cons lists, thought experiments, mathematical calculations, anything to give me an edge on what might be coming up next, so I can make the right decision for myself. Because this time, it really matters.
Powering down is the right thing to do, I've decided. There's really only one outcome that would be bad for powering down, which is HIVE and BTC both crashing throughout December. I wouldn't have enough to pay off the debt, even with all my other crypto savings added in. I'd have to power back up (waste of efficiency) and be no closer to my goal. In fact, I would have exposed my information and put a clock on things. So that's the bad outcome.
But in most outcomes, powering down is either neutral, or a really wise thing to do.
And since I don't believe the "bad outcome" is very likely, I'm going to power down, starting tonight. After I dish out one last round of juicy $2 upvotes - gotta love that! - I will do a power down for the full 17000 HIVE. As the weekly amounts become available, I will decide what to do with them based on the current price and my feeling about the chart.
My HIVE bankroll is currently the 742nd largest on the chain:
Powering up everything and never spending my HIVE has been such an ingrained behaviour for years now, it's strange to do a 180 degree turn on a dime, and head back in the other direction. But that seems to finally be the right decision. I see my prize on the horizon, I feel a burst of energy and hope, and I'm sprinting all out!
The ultimate goal of course is to go through BTC and into either cash/money-order or a bank account, depending on how I'm going to get these funds to my ex (or the state agency responsible for collecting them). And yes, I'll be setting aside 15% or so for taxes (either income tax or capital gains tax, whatever it ends up being counted as).
Yes, I'm expecting volatility, but that's crypto for you. My nerves aren't shaky, at least not about that! I'm fairly confident that either HIVE, BTC, or both will do well in the coming few weeks.
I'm going to succeed at this, I have to. I feel as though this is my personal moment, the one I've been strategizing for and dreaming about for ten years. I've made it this far with my morals intact, I've kept my promises, and I'm doing things my way. If I can win this one, I win it all! The best part of it is, nobody has to lose, in order for me to win. That's the way I want it done.
I can't wait. I have to steel myself so I don't let my emotions get too involved. What's a few more weeks, after a decade of planning and effort? Yes, I'm singleminded in my goal - I'm going to pay off that colossal debt and release myself from those chains. But how I get there still matters to me, so it pleases me that this is coming together, and I have to just close my eyes and guide myself with my intuition now.
Yes, I just about gave up when I was down more than 99% on my initial investment and we languished at 15c for months, earning what seemed like nothing, and reaching almost nobody with my message. I wanted to pack it in, but I realized there was no point, and I had no option but to continue on and hope the future would bring a recovery of exponential gains. So I doubled down and set my nose to the grindstone. A hail Mary move, some would say. Sometimes putting all your eggs into one basket is the right move - generally when that's your only potential path to victory.
Am I on the path to a huge win? Will my life story include my hard work and smart crypto decisions combining to turn everything around in my 40s? I've got my wife and toddler to think about, and we have another coming in the new year. This world isn't getting any normal-er, and prices are just going up and up. Now would be a REALLY good time to get my financial shit together once and for all, for my crypto dream to come true.
I'm envisioning HIVE taking out that 3.4 temporary top and heading above $5, then consolidating again before surging into the double digits... with the backdrop of BTC creeping up to 80k or more.
My powerdowns will be converted to BTC and cashed out to pay the debt. My 17000 HIVE, at even just $6, are worth $130,000 CAD. I would be free, with cash set aside for the tax, and a big pile of silver bullion. I could drive again, if I wanted. I could bank again. I could even leave the country... no, wait, only triple-injected statists are allowed to leave the country right now. But hey, one step at a time!
Thanks for listening to my personal story, and how recent price action might completely change my life. Comments and advice welcome. At the very least, I hope sharing my thoughts on the price action and my charts is helpful. And I hope your crypto dreams are coming true.
DRutter
