Everyone seems to think that we are going to skip off the $20k ATH and engage in a healthy dip. It makes sense. Bitcoin has done nothing but go up up up for a month now. Surely we should get some kind of a dip once we hit that $20k mental barrier.
The problem with this theory is that everyone seems to believe it. As we've seen time and time again, the more people who predict a certain outcome for the market, the more likely it is not to happen. Seeing as everyone and their mothers is talking about how this is bound to happen, I simply have to assume it won't for a variety of reasons.
The buying pressure we've been seeing the last month isn't fickle retail money. This is hardcore corporate support in the form of reserve balances (ultimate HODL money) and corporate adoption of custodianship like Paypal. I've been predicting this winter run for over a year without any knowledge of corporate adoption or the COVID crisis combined with infinite quantitative easing. All of those things could push up my previous estimates to astounding levels.
No Dip November has not disappointed.
All resistance has been fully crushed, but everyone seems to think there is some massive hurdle left at all time highs. There isn't. There's nothing there but fluff. The market is in a completely different place than it was 4 years ago.
Think about it.
We are 10 days away from an all time high monthly close (by a huge margin no less). Bitcoin could crash $4000 and we'd still make the cutoff. What's going to happen when everyone realizes they were wrong about skimming off $20k and coming back to the doubling curve early?
Extreme FOMO.
What we see in November is simply a precursor to December price action. How many times does this pattern have to complete before we begin to believe it might happen again? Looks like never. The market is still in disbelief.
2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13867 | $14933 | $16000 | $17067 | $18133 | $19200 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20267 | $21333 | $22400 | $23467 | $24533 | $25600 |
In February, the doubling curve is going to be $15k. That's only a 20% dip from where we are today. If you'll recall, a full retracement is around a 30%-40% dip, leading me to believe that this run hasn't even started yet.
This is what happened the last time we had a real bull run 18 months ago in Summer 2019. We got the signal that it started on April 1st, no jokes here. This is when we spiked higher than the doubling curve from $4000 to $5000.
2019
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3467 | $3733 | $4000 | $4267 | $4533 | $4800 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5067 | $5333 | $5600 | $5867 | $6133 | $6400 |
Once we got the signal, it took a while for the market to ramp up into full gear. Between week 6 & 11 we spiked up and hovered around the $8000 mark. Then, finally, we had 3 weeks of major bubble action up to almost $14000.
Looking at the market today, we see the signal of the start of this thing was was on October 20th. This means that the peak might not happen until three months after that.
Coincidentally, Jan 20th is inauguration day, and if a Biden administration is confirmed without incident, that could theoretically push the market up pretty hard, sparking the pump/dump we are looking for.
This power transition is going to imply a lot of things. More taxes, more quantitative easing, more stimulus checks, more socialized buffer systems, universal healthcare, The Green New Deal, yada yada yada. All of those things mean corporations will be looking to preserve their wealth, and obviously some of them will be turning to Bitcoin.
https://bitcointreasuries.org/
Everyone was flabbergasted that corporations like MicroStrategy buying huge chunks of Bitcoin didn't spike the price. All those speculators were obviously wrong. They were buying big dips and convincing foolish traders into dumping, thinking that CME futures gaps would be filled. These buys spiked the price on a delayed reaction. The dominos are now falling.
Now that those corporate bags are loaded, are we just assuming they're going to unload them at $20k even though all the history says it could go x10 higher than that over the next year? Get real. Everyone who bought between $10k-$13k is going to hold all the way through this.
There seems to be some odd consensus that a bunch of holders that have been in the red three years will for some reason come out of the woodwork to break even. Again... no.
Liquidity at $20k was thin in 2017, that's why the price was so volatile. Not that many people bought the peak, and most of the ones that did were weak hands and sold as Bitcoin crashed into the mountain. This idea that gobs of money is ready to dump at $20k is full on make believe founded on nothing. When the market reveals that this is the case all those people who are predicting this $20k FUD will be forced to FOMO back into the market or risk missing out on the mega-bubble, which isn't coming anytime soon either. Still have a year to go on that front.
Now is just about the worst time to be speculating on the market. If you wanted to buy, you obviously should have done so months ago, which was fully obvious months ago. And if you want to sell, good luck trying to scrape a tiny bit of profit from the rebuy at $15k. Buying and selling here are both risky moves, and everyone knows it.
Also, can we really compare this bull run to the summer 2019 one? If anything, the summer one should be a lot weaker than this one because it was fully based on Bakkt institutional FOMO. This one is 'backed' by actual corporate and institutional adoption. There aren't a lot of "maybes" this time around. This is happening 100%.
As the market has already revealed, this run is already markedly different than 2019. It took 6 months after the signal to even ramp up. This time around we started ramping up IMMEDIATELY and constantly for an entire month with zero dips so far. Everything about this run points to one of the biggest bubbles we've ever seen not counting the 4-year mega-bubbles.
Conclusion
Again, I'm predicting at least a $30k peak for this run. AT... LEAST... $60k is totally on the table. And what will all those people say who thought that we'd bounce off $20k when we're instead trading at $60k? "OMFG moon $200k is next this mega-bubble is coming early!!!" lol... so bad. No. No it is not coming early.
Again, for me it's more about timelines than price targets. I'm looking for high volatility/volume with a 24-48 hour blow off top. That hasn't even come close to happening. All we've seen so far is super solid buying pressure with zero dips, just as predicted. I'm also looking to rebuy into the market in late February, which means that blow-off top needs to come in January at the absolute latest so that it has time to deflate.
Of course these are all guesses and my guessing hasn't had the best track record over the last 3 years. However, the doubling curve has been miraculously accurate over the last 7 years. Seeing as we are only 50% higher than it today signals to me that we are far from being over bought (reference Summer 2019 200% higher). Not only are we fundamentally in a better place, but also winter is speculatively a bigger bubble than summer. All the info seems to point to one thing: HODL.