Hello everyone...
Without a doubt, the markets this week have been crazy, since we saw how the prices of all the markets fell back drastically, with the crypto sector being the most affected. Some have cataloged this as the consequences of bad US policies, but although this may be true to some extent, the reality is that people's fear and desperation make up 70% of the disaster.
This disaster has led LUNA and UST, one of the most powerful currencies in the market, to fall unimaginably, losing absolutely 100% of their value. also has to doubt the uncertain future of this project.
This is my personal opinion and I know I can miss some important things, if so let me know in the comments to clarify my point of view.
Bullish
For the future of LUNA and UST, I have a bullish assumption and a super pessimistic one. The bullish is that the project is rescued and that it returns to its original value or at least a part of it in the following ways:
- Burn de LUNA: One of the problems that caused the price to sink was the excessive circulating supply, which created great inflation that sank the price. So a fairly viable solution is to burn at least 20% or a maximum of 35% of the entire circulating supply, which would increase the price and the confidence of investors in the project, but they do burn real.
- Promote investment programs: One of the things that most attracted people to invest in LUNA and its projects was a good business presentation, the anchor protocol was, but it had an important flaw and it was unsustainable, so if they could offer realistic rates, they can win back investor confidence, which would eventually put LUNA back in the top 20 market cap coins.
- Rewarding investors who didn't abandon the project even though it was in the ground: This last one is somewhat unlikely, although I think Do Kwon talked about it a bit in The plan to revive LUNA. If they said that they reward investors with 20% or 30% of what they invested when the price bottomed out, it would encourage people to keep buying, which would drive the price up, and those who invest for the long term in large quantities buy.
Now let's talk about the problems facing LUNA and UST that can make everything go from bad to worse:
Bearish
Never get the $1 price back: When the damage is done nothing can be done. Many people invested a lot of money in the LUNA and UST project, and these testimonials flood the internet, plus the news spreads FUD and more FUD, which makes the project sink definitively and forever, which makes the price never recover an acceptable price that gives the green light to buy.
LUNA v2.0: One of the worst scenarios, since launching another token would destroy the little confidence they have, and those who hope that the price will rise a little to compensate for the losses end up sinking the project. Since a new token is not a good idea at all because the distribution of those who invested and lost will be unfair, since it would only benefit those who had more power in the Luna Terra network.
LUNA shitcoin: This is one of the most viable scenarios at the moment, as the price would be bouncing between $0.00006 and $0.00012, which would make it perfect for trades looking for something quick to get in and out of. Since they would make the price go up and down like a roller coaster, and the large circulating supply would not help at all.
Leave the project in oblivion: When the price was low there were many people who with only $10 bought millions of LUNA and UST tokens, now if they return to the $1 level we would have new millionaires around the world. This does not benefit anyone, since it would be an imbalance to the balance imposed by the elites (Although this sounds funny, it is true) And since there are users with 1B of LUNA in their wallets, it would not be convenient for the token to increase in value, therefore that the only solution is to leave the project in oblivion. It's not the first time it's happened and it won't be the last.
But when it comes to recovering a project where billions are at stake, well, anything can happen. What do you think we could see with this project?
Something you can do to take advantage and thus try to make firewood from the fallen tree is to calculate very well the support and resistance levels, make your trading plan and invest money that you are willing to lose and you will be able to make a profitable trade, with a win rate of 200% or more, since the price is quite predictable. And you can quickly turn $100 into a thousand or even more, of course, if you're willing to take the risk and it's up to you.