The blockchain has been affirmed by the senior management, and the new infrastructure is on the list. Many experts have begun to have faith and confidence in the future of the blockchain, especially as the market value of DeFi has increased by more than 400% in six months, and the market value has exceeded 10 billion. Dollars, many people began to move around, and even many illegal fund-raising projects were packaged as DeFi, and privately opened a "private board" (fundraising meeting).
A few days ago, in his speech on the "digital trend", Ma Yunlun emphasized that many places have been labeled as "blockchain". In fact, it has nothing to do with the real blockchain. Blockchain is data. Privacy and data security solutions. "Today's Bitcoin may be a bubble, but the blockchain is definitely not a bubble."
This judgment is intriguing. In fact, there is a lot of information, but many people simply understand that the blockchain is definitely not a bubble, but few people pay attention to the issue of “blockchain is a solution for data privacy and data security” .
The author began to pay attention to blockchain in 2016, intervened in "Bitcoin Investment" in 2017, and learned more about the industry in 2018. So far, I have visited and interviewed more than 100 blockchain companies in the industry, of which more than 80% are real "blockchain technology" The company sorts out some information based on the information in the industry and the understanding of the industry.
First, the blockchain is not a panacea
On April 20, 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission gave a clear "statement" to "new infrastructure".
The new infrastructure mainly includes three aspects: information infrastructure, integration infrastructure and innovation infrastructure.
Among them, information infrastructure refers to the infrastructure based on the evolution of a new generation of information technology. 5G, Internet of Things, Industrial Internet, Satellite Internet, etc. are communication network infrastructures, and data centers and intelligent computing centers are computing power infrastructures. Artificial intelligence, cloud computing, blockchain, etc. belong to the new technology infrastructure.
The functions of the conventional blockchain are: unchangeable, traceable, multi-party verification, etc. So for a long time, blockchain was considered a "trusted" tool.
But in fact, the real basic consensus in the industry is: the immutability of the blockchain itself does not prove that the information is credible, because immutability can only indicate that the information is credible after being on the chain, but whether the information is credible before being on the chain, Blockchain cannot solve it. In short: uploading a fake certificate cannot be changed, but it does not mean that the fake certificate is credible.
Therefore, as the “underlying technology” of the blockchain, if you do not understand the technology itself, all discussions and ideas may become groundless, completely separated from the understanding of technology, the scenarios of technology application, and the possibility of technology and industry integration. The assumption of ownership of the blockchain is likely to become a fantasy.
Second, SMEs basically do not use blockchain
We have been commissioned by many small and medium-sized enterprises to find the benefits of small and medium-sized enterprises on the chain and how to make them use the blockchain. After visiting many well-known technical teams and technology experts in the industry, we have made inquiries and the result is: small and medium-sized enterprises Blockchain is basically not used at present.
Blockchain solves the problem of credible data, but the credible data source of the enterprise itself will not be the enterprise itself. For example, the credible business license comes from the Industrial and Commercial Bureau, the credible tax information comes from the tax bureau, and the credible legal documents come from the court. These are certainly related to the enterprise, but not the enterprise's own-so the use of the certificate deposit function is more on the chain of government affairs. The documents of the industrial and commercial bureau, tax bureau, and court can be chained to solve the problems of a large number of enterprises in the system.
Traceability solves the chain problem. Now many small and medium-sized enterprises produce things offline or online, and the industry chain is short, and there is no problem of identity or innocence that must be traced to prove the source. The investment value of traceability is spent on the blockchain. Not big.
In reality, SMEs do not need to solve the problem of supply chain finance. The scenario of solving supply chain finance through blockchain lies in the “core enterprise”. An enterprise’s business has multiple links, and each link has more than ten or hundreds of suppliers. In this case, supply chain finance can Solve the cash problem through bills. And this kind of core enterprise is relatively large!
If the average SME is part of the core enterprise supply chain, then the core enterprise's supply chain finance can radiate to the enterprise itself; but its own raw material-production-sales itself is not complicated, not only cannot use many functions in supply chain finance, even if Used it, there is no practical help to myself.
Multi-party verification mainly occurs in the financial business field, such as banks, large import and export companies, companies with dozens of branches and hundreds of branches, etc. In their business systems, there are many banks, many financial institutions, For the relevant offices of local governments in many places, a certification document or a set of bills really need to be "verified by multiple parties." Correspondingly, in the business of many small and medium-sized enterprises, one bank is sufficient for the financial module, and multiple verifications are not required at all.
Blockchain technology, which is not available to small and medium enterprises, does not have much to do with individuals. Just like the two-dimensional code of a mobile phone uses password technology for a car, but you don't feel that it is password technology. Once government affairs and banking information are on the chain, it may appear that even if you are already using blockchain technology, you may not be able to perceive that it is blockchain technology. In other words, blockchain applications are difficult to make individuals feel.
Third, blockchain cannot make people rich
Many people know that blockchain is because of Bitcoin. In addition to the wave of people who made money from investing in "special commodities", many so-called blockchain investments or digital currency investments directed at ordinary people, although they have gone through various packaging, are essentially illegal fund-raising, fraud and fund-raising. Wait for the "road to wealth" written in the criminal law.
In the recently popular DeFi, the gameplay is for participants to mortgage the Ethereum and Bitcoin they already have to obtain a certain amount of interest. If you want to mortgage a house, you have to have a house, and if you want to mortgage a car, you have to have a car first, so in essence, this is a game of "rich people"-if you don’t have Bitcoin or Ethereum, a number with universally recognized value Currency, you can’t play, and you can’t get rich; if you want to start getting rich now, then you must first come up with things that can be exchanged for Bitcoin and Ethereum, such as money, and since it’s an “investment”, no Maybe you can only make money but not lose. Why can you make money? Still have to think twice.
Therefore, if you want to get rich through the blockchain, it should be said that there are not many opportunities for individuals now. If there is a chance to achieve capital turnover and wealth growth, it is also some specific applications supported by blockchain technology. For example, it may be possible in the future. Early investment in enterprises through central bank digital currency.
Even if this vision is expected, be careful. First, although angel investment may have a hundredfold return if successful, the normal state of angel investment is: more than 95% are vain; second, you have to have enough Money to buy central bank digital currency.