Based on past patterns bitcoin is very likely on the verge of its next parabolic bull market rally
In a previous post I mentioned what bitcoin would do if it simply repeated the same price action as previous halvings.
This is neither expected nor likely, however, as I mentioned in the post it is certainly possible that the resulting price action after the 3rd halving at least rhymes a bit with the first two.
More about that can be seen here btw:
@jrcornel/what-would-bitcoin-go-to-if-it-repeated-previous-post-halving-price-cycles
So, now that we have an idea what bitcoin might do if it were to repeat the past patterns when might this massive move and eventual peak actually happen?
I'm glad you asked!
Simply taking the average length (and returns) of the past halving patterns, we can get an average for what we might see this time around.
Again this is all hypothetical and based on past patterns, there is no guarantee this time around offers similar results.
Thus far though we are right on track...
So far bitcoin is trading basically right where it should be based on the averages from the previous two halvings.
Check this out:
(Source:
)https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1291040013413748737/photo/1
- ecoinometrics
If history were to repeat in a similar fashion to the first two halvings we would see the following...
- $41k by December 31st of this year
- $100k by April 18th of 2021
- $387k by May 12th 2021
For those astute observers, if bitcoin were to follow the average returns of the first two, we would be looking at a return of roughly 36x from current prices.
Seems crazy I know, but hey that's what happened the last two times, on average.
Will bitcoin come close to repeating these types of returns on these dates, I honestly have no idea.
The good news is that we only have to wait roughly 9 more months to find out.
For most people reading this that have been involved with bitcoin and crypto since at least 2017, waiting another 9 months seems like a cake-walk compared to what they have been through.
Personally I don't think bitcoin will get anywhere close to that number within the next 9 months, but I do think it can go up a decent amount over the next 18 months.
In fact, I think bitcoin can get very near $100k by the end of next year.
While that may sound like a far cry from the $387k mentioned above, it's still roughly 9x the current prices in just over a year.
Not many places you can get a 10x on your investment in a little over a year.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc