Whenever Bitcoin is in a bull run, every analysis seem to work. Targets are hit time after time after each beautiful price formation: triangles, rectangles, flags, wedges. All of them work! Bitcoin also has its own way to destroy technical analysis theorists (me included), hence why trading is not worth the risk.
It's common in Bitcoin charting to see the price collect stop-losses both from short and long positions during a long consolidation phase. Whether that's orchestrated by those powerful enough to influence price direction or just a normal market movement in search for liquidity is unknown.
All that to say: Yes! We are in a bull run. For one year to be more precise. Bitcoin has gone up more than 230%. ETFs are approved. People will begin to comment again. So, let's be careful and act with caution.
To the TA now...
On the last post, we tracked a multi-year retraction that let to the current Bitcoin bull run. Price, however, doesn't ramp without periods of accumulation/distribution. Those generally manifest in different patterns in a graph -- in Bitcoin's case, we see triangles, rectangles and wedges more often than flags and other less common formations.
Bitcoin has hit the target of a multi-month rectangle that formed in 2023 and is currently continuing past the target after a smaller rectangle on daily.
Bitcoin rectangle on weekly
The same appears to happen on the daily chart, though the price seems erratic, which might indicate we're entering the euphoria phase -- when the asset wants to retract but mainstream traders keep on buying.
Bitcoin rectangle on daily
Biggest concern is a huge divergence on the weekly chart between price and RSI (see blue lines). Historically that indicates a retraction is due, although I'd never bet on a divergence; Bitcoin tends to keep on going past a divergence quite often.
Bitcoin divergence in blue
Opinion: I think a correction is coming. Halving is happening in April, so there's certainly a period of wild price discovery coming our way. But again, I don't trade Bitcoin and charting is a mere distraction.
Let's see what happens until then.
Hooooooooooodl