On my recent post, there was a comment about having some HIVE price stability between 1 and 3, which would of course be great in the long term view, but I think in order to enjoy that kind of price stability, it would need to move quite a lot higher above that point first. The reason is that just like Bitcoin for instance, the floor price needs to increase and in order to do that, a couple of key things have to happen. The first is, people have to buy the token well above so that once price drops they are reluctant to sell for a loss and secondly, there has to be reasons to hold to double-down on that reluctance.
While bitcoin was once a dollar, the chances of it going back there (other than total and utter failure) is slim to none, because so many people have paid literally tens of thousands of times more than that. Because no one wants to sell for a loss, but there are still people who have bought well below others, an equilibrium point is reached on the downside. Plus, because so many of the buyers believe that the future price is going to be significantly higher than the current price, they are "taking on the risk" for that future potential, much like how yield return works to encourage people to put their tokens into a pool.
So, for HIVE to do something similar to increase the floor, the price has to go up and there has to be a reason to hold. Unlike Bitcoin though, the reason to hold Hive isn't just based on the potential future price, it is also based on the ways it can be used now. Many people look at the immediate value t can bring through voting and curation, but there are other aspects to it too, including airdrops of secondary tokens with Hive Power or HIVE held acting as an oracle for calculating who and how much gets what distribution of the new token, in the way 
But, there are other aspects to it too, where for example Hive Power is the only way to generate "resource Credits" which are dynamic tokens on the Hive Blockchain that can be used for a number of purposes, including all interactions and building assets. for example, a lot of Splinterlands asset owners are looking forward to "LAND" where they are able to own digital fields and by using there other assets, generate more digital assets like NFTs, essentially farming new tokens into existence. This should be huge for the game.
However, this is already happening on HIVE using Resource Credits, as for a few years now, it has been possible for those with enough Hive Power, they are able to create new account tokens that can be used to create new user accounts. An account on Hive costs 3 HIVE to create, so essentially, the account tokens I have generated are worth 15,000 HIVE.
This of course depends on the demand of the accounts though, and at the moment, there isn't enough demand nor mechanisms in place for me to "sell" these tokens to new users, but that doesn't mean there won't be in the future.
Combine this with resource credit delegation and that means that not only will I be able to "sell" these accounts, I would also be able to (in various ways) empower these new accounts to use the blockchain in the ways they want. For example, if Splinterlands keeps onboarding new users and the markets for sale and rentals keeps expanding, the transaction costs for the entire game ecosystem is going to be quite enormous. As an investor into the game, I would like to also be able to tap into the success of developing the game itself. This could happen in multiple ways where for example there are groups of account token holders who provide "account liquidity pools" with the ROI coming from new users signing up to buy Spellbooks.
This could be backed up with RC delegation pools that provide the ability for all of these accounts to interact with the blockchain (whether on Splinterlands or other interfaces), which could for example have a APY return based on some kind of reference link, where the expenditures of the accounts created through the pool, will feed value into RC liquidity providers.
None of this is happening yet, but it could and, it could happen in many forms for various kinds of applications, interfaces and experiences that are also empowered by second-layer tokenization models. This way, new users could come into the Hive Blockchain and use a single interface, without knowing they are actually part of a far more more complex and valuable economy. But as they start to learn and explore, they too begin to have more reasons to hold a little HIVE or, participate in a broader way than the single interface.
These types of options for usage put pressure on various points of the HIVE tokenomics, increasing demand and affecting the supply, by changing the possibilities on how to use HIVE itself. For example, I will never generate enough transactions to use all of Resource Credits, but if everyone needed on average 100 HIVE POWER to do what they want to do, my account could only support around two thousand accounts. That is near nothing!
In fact, as Resource Credits are only generated by Hive Power, only 1,470,000 accounts could interact simultaneously with 100 HP of RCs each, based on the current staked HIVE. If all HIVE was staked, that would be about 3.5 million accounts only. But that leaves no HIVE on the exchanges. That creates a bit of a supply problem.
Of course, no account actually needs 100 HP to interact all of the time, which means that the RC delegation and the potential pools, will have to be a bit smarter than just giving each account RCs, which means they are going to be dynamic and based on usage on the fly - *once demand requires it. For most accounts though, 10 HP is enough for most interactions that they will broadcast to the chain, especially of the type that are needed for games and most applications. This means that a lot of the second-layer apps will use their own RCs to empower their users, either directly or through delegation and handle the transactions at the application level, not user by user.
But, while all of this seems complicated, most of the users that are coming in will not be seeing any of the complexity, they will just go about their day, doing what they do, while all of the infrastructure, maintenance and empowerment happens in the background. This makes Hive user friendly for endusers, but also highly attractive for investors and enablers looking to earn on owning part of the network. And, an owner isn't limited to choosing the layer, as there will be many ways to own on the second layer too, including for example, taking application tokens as payment for providing accounts or Resource Credits.
The options to tokenize and generate value on Hive is near endless, but what is needed to empower the wealth potential, are the applications and usecases that generate demand, so that people are willing to buy the token higher than it is now, but still hold it even during market fluctuations. What this means is that while the markets go up and down on token specualtion, HIVE can actually lessen its volatility, much like Bitcoin has accomplished over the last decade. Yes, it is still volatile, but we aren't likely to see Bitcoin increase in value another 70,000 times from the high in the future, as that would make one BTC worth 4.9 billion dollars - which is just silly.
But, the tokens that are able to accomplish a raising floor and usecases that encourage ownership and stabilization, there will be trillions upon trillions of dollars pouring into them yearly, as the entire world embraces the many layers of web 3.0 tokenization and all of the innovations that are going to be enabled by it.
You know, 20 dollar Hive is only 16x up from where we are today and while most people think it is crazy, that is a market cap of less than 10 billion dollars. That is very low indeed considering the potential that this industry has for even the smaller of the blockchains that can attract and retain users, and Hive has the possibility to be amongst the larger. It won't all pour into the HIVE token directly though, as the majority of wealth is going to be held on the many second-layer applications to come, but that is part of the way Hive generates decentralized security and stability.
Hive is the power grid, we are the power and also choose the many directions we flow.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]