Time is a funny thing. If we consider it, we can embark upon a lot of mental masturbation. This is something that the greatest minds in the world have pondered, only to go in circles.
It is a being that goes by quickly yet, simultaneously, can go very slowly. We can lose track of it or see it ticking away second-by-second.
We can see this take on different meaning when we compare it to some other process. For example, in relation to time, for the most part, technology is forging ahead at an unforeseen pace. Yet on a daily pace, little changes.
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The world of blockchain and cryptocurrency is no different. We see how far things have come since the release of Satoshi's White Paper 12 years ago. It is also evident how the pace is accelerating when we look at what was accomplished across the industry in the last 3 years. Things are really starting to fall into place.
One of the big things, when it comes to Hive, is to stress how we are still under a year old. Certainly, we have the legacy on chain that goes back to the start of Steem, yet March 20th marked the start of something completely new. It was from that point that this genesis of what we see today took place.
Many feel we have not come that far. After all, a lot is still the same, at least on the surface. The user base is still down along with activity. We have not seen much growth in this area. Of course, the recent run aside, the token price is still in the toilet. If this was a viable chain, according to many, it will be much higher.
A lot of this misses what actually was taking place. While there is still a lot of work to go, we are noticing a large difference. This will only be accentuated over the next 6 months.
To start, the blockchain is optimized compared to where it was. This makes a big difference in performance while also making it more efficient. We can not handle a lot more activity without upgrades than we could have before. This will come into play as we move further along.
We also see the focus shifting now to the second layer. 
This is creating a situation where wealth is being generated outside of Hive. It is tied to the Hive ecosystem yet it is not in the base token. That is vital. We all know ETH is very valuable, ranking as the second blockchain in market cap. However, what is built upon it is going to be more valuable at some point.
Speaking of Ethereum, let us consider how quickly things changed for that blockchain. Back in the ICO craze, that was the go to place. Ethereum, while known for being the first smart contract chain, was, like the rest of the industry, just creeping along. However, when the ICO craze took hold, things skyrocketed. The price of ETH mooned and it seemed everyone was gravitating towards that chain. In short, it was the place to be.
It also had the advantage that CryptoKitties also took off, becoming wildly popular. These two events placed Ethereum at the center of the crypto industry along with Bitcoin. It still holds that position today.
In fact, 2020 saw it enhanced by the DeFi boom. Taking this chart from DefiPulse, we see what six month intervals can lead to.
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Notice how it went from slightly under $1 billion in March to $8.5 billion by September. That is more than an 8x in a half year. Of course, since that time, things only further, providing another 5x.
This shows how quickly things can change.
So, is 6 months a long period of time or not? It seems we can say it is and it is not. Certainly it is enough time to see a noticeable difference in things.
With all that is taking place, there is a good chance that we see Hive in a much different place come August of this year. The next 180 days will truly change the outlook of this entire ecosystem. It is likely we see a massive influx of users with a few of the DApps that are being developed as well as a lot more activity. This is going to set the foundation to pull the blockchain to even greater heights.
All of us want massive growth and expansion. That is ideal yet not always possible. Sometimes the path to enormous success, especially overnight, is years in the making. Bitcoin's path to a $900 billion blockchain took more than a decade.
Hive is a grind. There is no way to sugarcoat it. We are at a point in time, at a place, where it is inching along. As much as we crave the massive leaps, the process has to unfold. We still have some holes in our infrastructure that require filling. Until that happens, we are trying to operate on car on 3 tires.
The biggest hole is the ability to offer decentralized, inexpensive smart contract solutions. This is a hindrance when trying to onboard communities. Many are not aware of what this all entails, hence are not "sold" on it. However, when we look at the potential market, we can see how enormous it truly is.
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For example, WallStreetBets made some noise a few weeks back. That Reddit group had over 6 million members. While we can debate how many are still active, there is little doubt there are hundreds of thousands who are in there on a regular basis. Imagine if we simply pulled that one group over to Hive.
Of course, that isn't even the largest group. Imagine the fan base for some professional or collegiate sports teams. They truly are into the millions of people.
So what will it take for the floodgates to open? That is hard to say. We deal with different categories of people. There are users, investors, and developers. Each has different needs and must be catered to in an individual manner.
Nevertheless, it all really feeds into itself. We have a lot of development taking place which will, eventually, bring in more users. That, of course, will capture the attention of other developers as they see a target market already in place. At the same time, as this is taking place, investors begin to monitor the situation. Not all are wildcatters seeking the earliest entry points. Instead, the focus upon being early, yet waiting until some things are established.
For now, we just keep grinding knowing there are a few applications that will be released over the next few months that can start the process towards more users. A lot is being pushed out that will entice people who were never exposed to what Hive has to offer. While many of them will be single app users, some will filter through and learn more about what is here.
Ultimately, there is a positive feedback system that can be created on Hive. Up to this point, that system has been negative. We can see how this operates since Hive offers some unique opportunities as compared to other blockchains. Thus, activity tends to be tied to token price.
Over the next 6 months, as the Layer 2 solutions become even stronger, we will not see this as the norm. Activity will be divorced from token price as we attract users with different requirements. The next leg to Hive is not going to be based upon rewards but, rather, some other void that Hive fills.
As we near the end of the Summer, I believe we will see Hive in a much different place, on all levels. We are getting very close to the elbow of the exponential chart.
It is going to be a wild ride.
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