"All the news that's fit to print"
This was something the NY Times implemented as part of its tagline. It dates back over 100 years.
After recent events regarding the media, this is certainly in question. However, the NY Times is still a relevant publication, one of the few from the old newspaper days. Even if someone doesn't believe the validity of what is published, there are over 11 million subscribers to this publication.
Therefore, it is worthy to note when something new is picked up by the publication.
When it comes to technology, we are not dealing with the same old, recycled ideas. If it appears on a mainstream site like the NY Times, it is starting to get legs. Of course, if it is a new technology, we could be in a hype cycle.
Nevertheless, we have an idea about social media that echoes what we have discussed for months.
NY Times: Social Media Ends Up As A Wasteland
This is an idea that is contrary to the narrative.
We are bombarded with headlines about how well Bluesky is doing. Some are claiming this is going to destroy X. Much of it comes from those with an anti-Elon sentiment.
Whatever the motivation, we can see a media led farce. It is interesting to see the NY Times as the entity to call it out.
Bluesky has a reported 25 million users. This is not an insignificant amount. However, when it comes to the world of social media, it is a nothing. To constrast, X is near 600 million monthly users.
In this arena, networks effects are the deal.
To its credit, Bluesky has seen a massive increase in activity since the United States election. As a left leaning platform, users believe it offers a viable alternative to X.
People are free to set up whatever they want, even if it is an echo chamber. However, the future of Bluesky is clear. We saw a lot go before it. In fact, we see the same thing in the video world.
Many dislike YouTube, which is owned by Google, censoring videos. For this reason, Rumble became a popular destination. Since Google leans left, Rumble attracted those who tend to be the opposite.
As of the last time I looked, Rumble had around 50 million monthly users. Again, this is an impressive figure.
Or maybe it isn't. We have to keep in mind that YouTube has 2.5 billion users. Maybe Rumble isn't making the dent that some assert.
Perhaps these platforms will hang around. After all, MySpace still has traffic. That said, the future of social media is dead.
We have officially arrived in late-stage social media. The services and platforms that delighted us and reshaped our lives when they began appearing a few decades ago have now reached total saturation and maturation. Call it malaise. Call it Stockholm syndrome. Call it whatever. But each time a new platform debuts, promising something better — to help us connect better, share photos better, manage our lives better — many of us enthusiastically trek on over, only to be disappointed in the end.
Rinse and repeat.
Even Jack Dorsey, the founder of Bluesky, left the platform.
The Everything App
Elon Musk, after buying Twitter, stated his goal was to turn X into the everything app. This is something that is mirroring WeChat, the popular Chinese platform.
We have some historical precendant with this concept since Web 2.0 realized the "winner take most" idea.
The company is already looking to incorporate a payment system, filing for licenses within the United States. I would presume, once the 50 licenses are in hand, application in other countries can start. In the United States, the banking laws are primarily driven by the states.
While payments could enhance the value, especially with commercial activity, there is something much bigger looming.
X is a data gold mine.
Social Media Is An On-Ramp For Data
Future social media applications will be AI platforms; epicenters for AI services that people can utilize.
This means we are back to the new oil: data.
Why will Bluesky not take out X? So far, there is no model being developed. The site might be generating a significant amount of data but it is not mining it. Instead, it is open for anyone else to pillage.
Certainly, open data is a good thing. From this perspective, it is performing a powerful service.
However, as a platform, it is going to diminish in utility. X, along with the other social media sites, has a ton of data plus it is using it.
What does X look like? Here is a query I did using Grok:
This states the data was from 2014. In doing a quick search, these are the numbers people state for 2023. Is it accurate or are the numbers higher? There is no way to tell based upon this.
What I can say is it will explode. Even that prompt added more to the database:
Using the ChatGPT tokenizer, this prompt added 163 more tokens to the X database. Consider how many prompts a day can be generated with 600 million monthly users.
Even before taking this into account, X is generating rougly 2.25 billion tokens per day. It is a number that is likely to double over the next couple years as AI becomes a bigger part of the platform.
Going back to the conclusion in the NY Times article, social media platforms will become a wasteland in the end. This is an enormous lesson (and warning) for Web 3.0.
If this is accurate, which I believe it is, then we need to alter how we view things. X provides a great lesson for what we are dealing with. Musk might have purchased a social media platform but he got a treasure chest of data.
Ultimately, this is all that matters. Any platform that is not looking to maximize data AND utilize it to provide AI services is doomed.
Some are starting to see where this is heading: wateland.