Nothing stays the same.
We are seeing transformation on many levels. Entire economies are going to be rewritten simply by artificial intelligence alone. However, this is not the only disruptive force in play.
Our advancement into this latest technological era means that, in a decade, things will be radically different. The time from introduction to major impact is condensing. As we stated in the past few articles, ChatGPT was only released last November. That means, at the time of this article, we are still shy of 12 months.
Yet look at the impact it has made.
Anyone who follows these articles knows that I believe blockchain is also a major force that will have profound benefits going forward. This is something that affects ALL aspects of data, which means it can potentially penetrate most industries.
With crypto-assets riding on top, this is going to make things very different going forward. cryptocurrency is a game changer. One area we will see this is in real estate.
Migration
It is being reported that New York City how has 58 billionaires. This is down from 72 in 2019. Source
What happened and why is in this important?
New York is a city that is plagued with high tax rates, escalating crime, and deterioration in many areas. The appeal of the city to many of these billionaires is dwindling. This means migration is taking place.
A couple years ago, I wrote an article The Layout For The Globalization Of Real Estate. This was based upon the premise of digital nomads.
Obviously, anyone who is a billionaire has the option to live anywhere he or she desires. Since most of the income is derived from investments, where one is physically is less important. We saw Larry Ellison move his company from California to Texas while he went to Hawaii. Here is a guy who was tied of paying that state both on a corporate and personal level.
This ability did not extend to the masses however. For the average person, moving is a nightmare. It all begins with the fact that income usually comes from one's job. That means physically being located where the opportunities reside.
In most countries, over the last 40 years, this meant the major cities. Global urbanization occurred because the cities had a monopoly on the high paying jobs. This devastated the rural areas.
This might not be the case much longer.
Web3 Will Disrupt Real Estate
Web3 is going to have a huge impact upon real estate. By this, we are not referring to tokenization although that is a major force that will alter the industry.
What I am focusing upon is migration.
As we see the newer technologies unfolding, people will have more options. The Internet is going to be the source for more incomes going forward. We see the blending of the physical and digital worlds already. With the path towards Web 3.0, this will alter the living decision people make.
In short, many of us will be presented with the optionsthe billionaires have.
If your income is not dependent upon being in a particular physical area, what options do you have? How many other opportunities open up?
Web3 will offer this.
We are seeing satellites providing Internet. Within a couple years, this will blanket the world. That means that we can go anywhere and still be connected. There could be drawbacks to this certainly but, from a work perspective, it means any knowledge job tied to the cloud will qualify as remote work.
The impact upon real estate will be enormous.
Global Migration
People are going to be able to choose where they prefer to live. Those areas that are abusive and against the interests of the general population are going to decline rather quickly.
While some might say it is good for the rich to leave, when a city losses 14 billionaires, a lot of tax revenue also departs. Of course, we are not even talking about the millionaires who write decent checks themselves.
For a city like New York, the problem is not just the billionaire income, it is also the businesses these people control. Miami is now being called Wall Street 2 since many firms decided to relocate there. More than 150 firms moves, displacing more than $1 trillion.
That is a lot of tax revenue.
For now, we are seeing this migration occurring within nations such as the United States. There will come a point, however, when this will go international.
My forecast is that, by the middle of the 2030s, migration by middle income earners who are tied to Web3 will be in full force. Countries that want to alter their economic conditions can invest a bit in infrastructure and roll out the Red carpet. Depending upon the country, there is no need to target the millionaire status.
A country like El Salvador, as an example, could target 250K Americans making $100K or more. This would be a nice influx of income along with capital. By the middle of the next decade, this number will be easy to find.
Technology Is The Great Equalizer
Technology is the greater equalizer.
Early technology is expensive and clunky. Only the truest of trailblazers embrace it. However, over time, the product (service) improves while also coming down in cost. This is a major step for mass adoption.
For the most part, migration like we are discussing here was only for the affluent. On average, most people were stuck in their area. While they might be able to relocate to a different town, moving across borders was difficult.
This will likely get easier as countries start to get aggressive. That coupled with demographic headwinds means that those with a solid income are going to be in great demand. This will cause a mass exodus for some nations.
Technology is going to, once again, impact real estate prices. While Silicon Valley surged due to this advancement, manufacturing areas saw the opposite effect. Like most things, technology is only getting more powerful and reaching further parts of the globe. This means the impact will be like it was before, only on steroids.
Many urban areas will see things accelerate down. As the tax base dwindles, promises made by politicians simply cannot be kept. This means cuts somewhere in the budget, affecting all kinds of services.
Those who are tied to the area financially are still likely to be stuck. That said, the number who will have options is going to keep growing.
The network-state concept is going to become a bigger part of our lives. This means that geography is less crucial. Here we see a different mindset likely emerging that is going to alter everything, including real estate value.
Certainly, people factor in more than just cost of living. Nevertheless, that is a big one for most people.
If one is dependent upon a network-state for his or her living, why not consider an area that is 40% (or more) cheaper to live? This is where areas will have to look at how they can appeal to those looking to relocate.
Disruption is the key element going forward. We are going to see the tentacles spreading in ways we didn't consider.
Real estate is one I believe will be completely upended by 2035. We will be in an entirely different world by then.