Cable television is on the decline. We are looking at a complete change as the broadcast world is altered.
It is my view that cable is dead. There are a few things keeping it alive and the removal of any one of them is going to mean the end of cable. This is going to travel the same path of Kodak, Blockbuster, and the Nightly news. In fact, the death will be for many of the same reasons.
That said, we are still seeing it around and it will be for some time. As we can see, even though in decline, it isn't quite dead yet.
Here is how things looked over the last decade. This particular chart is a couple years old. The official number is 65.1 million subscribers in 2022, a year ahead of the expected.
There are, however, three things that are sustaining cable television and preventing an instant collapse. If one of these is removed, it is game over.
1. Demographics
This is something that will not change instantly.
Cable television is for older people. It is the Baby Boomers who are carrying the cable subscriptions. This is the largest generation in the United States ever and, like most, are slow to change.
Therefore, they are the main customer. This does not bode well for these media companies since age is catching up to them. In another decade, the potential base is going to be much smaller.
It is a repeat of the Nightly News of an earlier generation. Over time, those customers got older and started to die off. The Boomers, in their younger years, were not Nightly News watchers. Hence, Rather, Brokaw, and Jennings were put out to pasture.
We know how this ends. Fortunately, it will not happen overnight so the media companies have some time on this one.
2. Sports
One of the main reasons why many people keep their cable subscriptions is because they are sports fans.
Whether it is college or pro, cable television is full of sporting events. There are actually channels dedicated to certain conferences that people can subscribe to.
TBS. TNT. Fox. CBS. NBC. ABC. ESPN.
They all have live sporting events. This means people are willing to keep their subscriptions to ensure they get their sports fix.
This could be changing. Broadcast stations are nothing more than middleman in the process. They are the bridge from the leagues to the consumers.
Like most things in this era, their need is diminishing. Leagues are starting to go direct, offering their own applications. This is true on a national and, even, local level.
This is going to put a hurting on cable television if the leagues are able to figure out how to access their markets without the stations.
3. Big Pharma
If you want to see who is funding cable, here it is.
Research is showing that Big Pharma accounts for 75% of all cable television advertising. This is not a significant amount, it is the overwhelming majority.
By the way, the United States is one of two countries in the world that allow Big Pharma to advertise. The other is New Zealand.
This could be zapped in an instance by the government reverting to the time when advertising of drugs will illegal. This would immediately pull a huge amount of money from cable television. They are not doing that well as it is. This would destroy a significant portion of the broadcast channels.
There are no indications that this will happen. However, if subscriptions keep dropping, which the chart above shows is the forecast, we are going to see the money generated declining.
Of course, this is happening at a time when the sports leagues are seeking more money for the broadcast rights.
In Conclusion
If any one of these 3 diminishes greatly, cable television is instantly destroyed. Subscription rates will plummet at an ever greater pace than we are seeing.
Right now, this is all sustaining these broadcast networks.
How long will it take before we see major fallout is anyone's guess. However, if we see the level hit 50 million in the next couple years, we can see how this is a halving from where it was in 2014.