The Chinese are opportunistic.

After years of bending over backwards to appease the CCP, Hollywood is now taking it where the sun doesn't shine. Of course, this was a long time in the making, something that the studios were too blind to see.

Leading the pack, once again, is Bob Iger and Disney.

With the trade war that is taking place, the CCP is now banning Hollywood from China. This put over half a billion dollars at risk for Hollywood studios. Ironically, this is less than what it use to be.

Hollywood is learning the lesson of legacy auto. It is always the same story, something that gets overlooked evidently.

Another Hit To Hollywood - Get Out Of China

Hollywood is cooked.

I don't know how many times I wrote this over the last couple years. With forecasts of this nature, it is interesting to note how one can see a trend but not know the different circumstances that brings it about.

For Hollywood, the lesson from the car manufacturers should have served as a warning. China was a major profit center for them. Yet, over the past few years, sales of Chinese made autos has soared. This has squeezed out the Germans and Japanese. The Americans, outside of Tesla, were basically gone before that.

Now we are seeing the same thing with movies.

In 2024, Hollywood films earned $585 million at the Chinese box office. While down from past years, that revenue remains critical to the bottom line for major studios. A ban would not only cut off hundreds of millions in annual earnings—it would signal that China no longer sees Hollywood as a valuable partner.

Notice how it was down from years past. Why was that the case?

Basically, the Chinese does not need Hollywood anymore.

Over the past five years, Chinese blockbusters like The Battle at Lake Changjin, Wolf Warrior 2, and Ne Zha have dominated Chinese domestic box office charts. Backed by state funding, nationalist themes, and media control, these films offer audiences stories that align with CCP messaging—and they’re doing big numbers.

In 2023, domestic Chinese films accounted for over 80% of box office revenue in China. The demand for American content is fading, not just because of politics, but because China now supplies its own heroes.

Source

The second paragraph shows why the hit to Hollywood is not as great. Chinese films have the overwhelming majority of the box office market share. It means that Hollywood was in a major decline.

An Excuse To Bar Hollywood

China is going to leverage this. Why play games when there is a perfect excuse to eliminate competition.

Of course, it will dangle some carrot which the studios will chase after. This will lead to attacks on Trump, since the studios own most of legacy media. They will use the platform to blast the decisions against China, hoping to curry favor.

The problem is this was the norm for more than a decade.

Many films were altered for the Chinese market, trying to appease the CCP. The John Cena apology to China was probably the low point in this fiasco.

For an industry already in decline, this is another dagger on the road to a fatal outcome.

Hollywood will never enter the Chinese market in any meaningful way, same as legacy autos. Those days are gone forever.

More importantly, Hollywood is losing the cultural influence. This is as important as the economics. The ability to drive narratives around the world is waning. Eyeballs are going elsewhere. Of course, the Chinese were onto that long ago, forcing changes that met its criteria.

Going forward, it isnt going to matter. China is done with Hollywood like many other industries. This is the model it follows and one of the main reason there is a trade war taking place.