Many use indicators that are backwards looking instead of peering into the future. One of the metrics that tells the forward story is inventories.
Last month was a record increase in inventories. The numbers just came in for January and, while below the previous record, are still at an extremely elevated level.
In this video I cover the numbers and how rising inventories filter through the system. This means that all the good news about factory utilization and other headlines is useless. If it is getting stalled at the retail level, that could lead to a reduction in future production.
As stated before, we are operating from a theory that demand is not as robust as we are being told it is.
Here is the information cited in the video:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-inventories-ex-auto-1887
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