Legacy auto is dying.
This is something that should be evident to everyone by now. Most will, at a minimum, enter bankruptcy. Then it becomes a political question of whether they get bailed out by their respective governments. Of course, this brings in politics which can be impossible to predict.
However, even governments are going to have a breaking point. Most legacy automakers are on the path down.
As the basis for this piece, I used an article from Autoblog.com.
The Transition To EVs Is Killing Legacy Auto
Mercedes saw their sales slip 30% in China as competition went into overdrive in that country. all German automakers are suffering from higher production costs in their home country.
The challenges for everyone in the business is making a profit on these vehicles. It is likely that everyone except Tesla is losing money on each fully electric vehicle they produce. BYD and others appear to be faring okay with their plug-ins but, since they don't break the numbers out, that is just a guess.
At the root of this problem is the late start most companies got. We are watching major issues arising within the Stellantis and Volkswagon groups. This warning signs are popping up for other manufacturers as ICE sales are slipping. Here is where they will eventually come to a crossroads.
That said, here are the 20 brands who could be gone before this is all over:
- Ford
- Lincoln
- Chrsler
- Dodge
- Ram
- Alfa Romeo
- Maserati
- Toyota
- Lexus
- Nissan
- Infiniti
- Mazda
- Suburu
- Jaguar
- Land Rover
- Mercedes-Benz
- Volkswagon
- Audi
- Porsche
Naturally, many of these are under the same parent company, furthering the problem. As the overall profitability starts to get hit, as we see with Stellantis and VW, the cuts move across the entire company.
Start Ups Could Face Trouble
The linked article also discusses EV start ups that could be in trouble.
Those are:
- Fisker
- Rivian
- Lucid
- Polestar
Rivian is the most viable yet they are still bleeding a lot of money. They keep raising the cash to keep operating but they are against the clock. Will the money run out before they attain profitability?
Two EV Makers
As I stated all along, there will basically be two EV manufacturers: Tesla and the Chinese.
With the latter, we will see a great deal of consolidation. The market will handle something like 10 companies. For some reason, it appears that almost every company in China that manufactured anything got into the automotive business. At one point, there were over 300 companies making cars.
Even in an subsidized environment, this cannot be maintained. So far, a large number of companies have gone under.
This is a wave that will be ridden for the next couple years. The likes of BYD, XPENG and Xiaomi appear to be on stable footing. Others like NIO might not be so lucky.
We are seeing layoffs around the world, at a time when total automotive sales are increasing. This shows the state of many of the manufacturers. They are finding their dealerships cannot take on any more inventory. What results is plants are shut down, some on a temporary basis with others permanently.
Needless to say, this industry will not look the same in 5 years.