Pulycub is instilling mixed emotions in people. Many are excited about the new approach that was developed by the Leofinance team. They see what is taking place and the potential it holds.
Of course, there are also those who are discouraged because they only look at price. The price of POLYCUB has crashed, causing many to spread FUD and complain how it is not going to work. Naturally, these people have little idea what is taking place.
The price is not indicative of anything that is going to happen. Let us make this point very clear: POLYCUB is designed to favor HODLers. Read that again. This means we have to resist the typical DeFi mindset of looking at things over a 3 minute time horizon.
For those who are interested in learning about how this is going to work, there is no need to wait too long. It is only a few months and we will see a big change. Actually, it could already be starting if people are aware of how this is structured.
What Is Really Important
The other day, and I did a video detailing how Polycub workds. In it, there were two frameworks presented of how to view this project. For the sake of this article, we will look at the second.
To start, we have to look at the emission rate of POLYCUB. did a terrific post detailing what it will look like so we will go with those numbers.
Here is the graph depicting what will take place:
According to those calculations, in the first 6 months we will see roughly 7,241,000 POLYCUB created. There will be more tokens generated but they quickly get to the point of being insignificant.
Here is the emission rate in table form:
By the way, here are the approximate emission rates of POLYCUB per day in the following months:
Month 7 36K or 1,200 per day
Month 8 18K or 600 per day
Month 9 9K or 300 per day
Month 10 4.5K or 150 per day
As we can see, we get to the point where the emissions is negligible.
This is the epitome of deflationary.
Roughly 90 days from now, by the middle of June, we are going to see roughly 5.5M of the 7.2M POLYCUB distributed. The rate of emission will drop off very quickly over that time frame.
That said, it is time to ignore POLYCUB. We are even going to make this simpler.
xPOLYCUB: All That Matters
The HODLers who benefit are those who have xPOLYCUB. This is where a significant amount of the inflation and penalty claims are going. It is also where a healthy percentage of the purchases from the fees also are directed.
What is little talked about, so far, is the fact that POLYCUB is not the only thing that is deflationary. xPOLYCUB operates on its own deflationary curve. Here is where we are going to see things get very tight.
We often talk about the POLYCUB-to-xPOLYCUB ratio. This is vital. Here is what it looks like as of this writing:
This is important to determine what the maximum xPOLYCUB is available.
Using the 7.241M POLYCUB total, this means that we now have a potential of 833,016 xPOLYCUB (7.241M/8.6925). Remember, this is where the POLYCUB is directed and who is targeted for reward.
To provide context, the number of xPOLYCUB that potentially could be created, 14 hours ago, was 883,098. We basically are down 50K in a little more than half a day.
Of course, this pace is going to slow as the POLYCUB emission declines. However, the crucial point here is that one who has 50 xPOLY was 50 out of potentially 883,098 earlier in the day. Now, it is 50 out of a potential 833,016.
By next week, that will be 50 out of a potential 724,100.
Do you see how this works?
Yet here is the multi-million dollar question: what do you think this will look like in 90 days?
As the PC/xPC ratio increases, which is does every few moments, the total potential xPOLYCUB declines. Again, this is where the a large portion of the POLYCUB bought via the fees is going to be directed.
During the typing of this, the ratio changes to 8.7016, bringing the xPOLY cap down to 832,145.
Hopefully we can see how this is going to change in a big way in a maximum of 90 days. The impact could certainly be felt sooner depending upon how the market perceives things. Nevertheless, regardless of what happens to the price in USD during this time frame, there will come a point where the lack of POLYCUB will cause a supply issue. This means the only variable to move is the price in USD.
And those who are holding xPOLY are seeing the number of POLY that represents growing every few moments. The fact the xPOLY cap is falling each day shows the deflationary power of this.
This means that even if the daily fees in USD are flat, it will have to fight for a dwindling supply. There will come a day when the fees generate more money to buy POLYCUB than are generated. At that point, existing POLYCUB has to be purchased to rewarded both the pools and xPOLYCUB holders.
One final note, we took the first step forward as the POLYCUB per block went from 5 to 4. We just saw the end of Week 1.
If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and rehive.
