Earlier in the year, OpenAi did a demonstration of a new video generation program called Sora. This led Tyler Perry to cancel plans for an $800 million studio that he had planned.
Since that time, we heard a lot of discussion but very little from OpenAI. The application was not released. During that time, other companies stepped up, including some from China. The capabilities of these systems keep improving, putting Hollywood in the crosshairs.
OpenAI announced that Sora is now available to the public. This comes from their blog post:
Sora About To Crush Hollywood
Sora is the first of what will be many video generation products to hit the market. Generative AI is going to crush most industries, radically changing the players in the game.
Search is a prime example where we are already seeing a shift. Google will be the one suffering as it commands an overwhelming amount of the search traffic. As people turn to chatbots for answers, the need to hit up Google Search is reduced.
At this moment, some dispute this claim. There is a sentiment that feels Google will hold onto its dominance. Unfortunately for the company, this is not how disruption works. Search is going to experience the same thing as media, fragmentation.
Speaking of media, the devastation is starting. The causes are too varied to cover in one article. That said, we see the numbers offering the takeaway that disruption is creating a wake of destruction.
When it comes to Hollywood creation, Sora is going to target this.
We already see how coding is being affected. Remember when people said the only solution to job disruption was to learn how to code. Little did people realize this was also going to be turned on its ear.
There is a tendency for people to overvalue what they can do. As humans, for some reason, we believe that our specialty is not replaceable. Nowhere is this as evident as in Hollywood.
Technology Is Taking Over
The central fact of life today is technology, specifically automation, is taking over. This is causing rapid disruption, in ways few realize.
An application like Sora has the potential to cause enormous damage to Hollywood. We will have to see how advanced the latest model is, but we can see where it is heading.
Even if it presently is lackluster, we know that a couple generations down the road, i.e. two years, we are dealing with a completely different set of capabilities. Whatever the parameters, they will be expanded over that time. This is the nature of these models regardless of the media type.
We are witnessing an improvement of in the capabilities of all these systems. That is probably going to continue as more people use the applications. There is an important feedback loop that emerges.
With the release of Sora, they will likely accelerate the training capability if tens of millions of people start to utilize the service.
Of course, as mentioned, this is not the only game in town. There are a number of other applications on the market, all progressing in a forward direction.
As always, AI is at its weakest point today. It will only improve from here.
This is a major problem for Hollywood. That industry is the epitome of centralization, especially when it comes to the creation of high quality content. We see the industry going down in flames due to the disruption in distribution. This will simply be a dagger to the heart.
Blockbuster and Kodak went bankrupt for a reason. Technology completely upended business models which were successful for decades. Hollywood is about to experience something similar.
Just because the industry dates back 100 years does not mean it is immune to carnage. Look at the automotive industry and what is happening to the major players there.
AI will handle the major of video creation in the future. This will start at the lower levels and work its way up. By the end of 2025, I predict most online video advertisements will be done by AI.
From there, it simply is a process of moving higher on the scale as the capabilities improve.