This is a topic I discussed in the past, and got some pushback. For some reason, there are people who disagree with my view of what is taking place.
Alas, such is the case with people and the effects of technology.
I often state that, if you do not understand technology, you really do not know what is going on. By this, I am not so much referring to the bits/bytes although that could certainly help. Instead, this is the focus upon technological trends and how it disrupts things.
More than a decade ago, in the United States, we saw the onset of what became the retail apocalypse. This was something that most did not see happening. Personally, I became aware of it around 2013 or so. I was late to [the party although early compared to the masses.
This coincided with the rapid decline of video rental stores, Blockbuster and Movie Gallery being the biggest. That was a technological destruction due to streaming, Netflix in particular.
As we enter the middle of the 2020s, there should be no reason to overlook what is taking place. The track record is clear: things start as a drip and then accelerate. By the time the masses notice, we are in a full blown apocalypse.
College Apocalypse Is Starting
Higher education in the United States is in trouble.
This does not mean we are going to see every institution go under There is still a need for education of this manner. However, the majority of what we presently see will be gone by 2040. Remember, this starts small and accelerates.
Think if this as the tentacles of an octopus. They are going in many directions, starting to grab more over time. With this path of destruction, it starts to widen and converge.
With higher education, it is simply a numbers game. There are a number of factors we will look at. However, before getting to that, let's see what is taking place.
For tenured professors, the paths to getting sacked are few. You can commit a felony or lose your grip on sanity. You can demonstrate persistent incompetence and even then you are given years to turn things around. Or your chancellor can eliminate the department into which you are tenured.
We all heard about tenure in the teaching profession. It is something that professors work hard to achieve. Basically, it means job stability.
The above quote mentioned how hard it is for a tenured professor to lose. As along as one doesn't commit a felony or go completely off the deep end mentally, one is okay.
Yet, this was from an article where the professor is losing tenure.
It is the last point that is affecting things.
Let me explain. I teach at a small public university. Our enrollment dropped 25% over four years. My department did not cause that. But declining enrollments mean declining revenue: our tuition dollars fell, and state allocations are based on our enrollments. To address the deepening budget crisis, our new chancellor decided to cut four academic programs, including mine. I teach Classics, that is, Greek and Latin literature, language, history, and culture. I’ve taught at my university for 24 years. Next year could be my last.
It did not take much to find out what school was being referenced.
This starts with attend the University of North Carolina Asheville. Are you kidding me? This is a public school, part of a well established state university system and enrollment is down 25%.
We are looking at a trend that is not going to stop.
Reasons For Enrollment Decline
There are two big reasons for the decline in enrollment.
The first is demographics. Most of the developed world is facing an aging crisis. The fertility rates have dropped for decades. What is means is less students. We often see the lower levels closing schools due to the decline in kids in different age brackets.
Less high school seniors is going to natural lead to a decline in college students.
For much of the last decade, the shortage was made up by attracting foreigners. It is not uncommon for many universities, especially private ones, to have 30% of their enrollment made up by foreign students. Unfortunately, for these institutions, that is starting to dry up also.
Another is a combination of technology along with cost.
Look at what this professor teaches. It is tough to justify having this guy employed when teaching these classes, especially in light of the cost.
I teach Classics, that is, Greek and Latin literature, language, history, and culture.
We are in the Internet age. All of that can be learned online. What is ironic is we are only at the beginning of this transition. Chatbots, as an example, could end up providing a more advanced user experience, i.e. learning, through personalized interaction.
While taking some of these courses at a community college could be feasible if someone was really interested in one of the topics, as something that is charged is insane.
As a matter of curiosity, here is the costs according the school's website:
We are looking at around $25K for in-state and $45K out-of-state. Naturally, scholarships and grants could end up bringing this down some but we are looking at a large sum of money.
Keep in mind, this is a small state school. I can't tell you how good this institution is. However, we are not dealing with something prestigious such as Harvard or Stamford.
Is it any wonder enrollment is declining?
These kids are looking at $100K (at a minimum) to get a degree in Greek or Latin literature? What are you going to do with that.
Slowly, Slowly, Quickly
This is where it starts.
We are not going to see all majors wiped out. Upper level education has a lot of merit in certain fields. In fact, you cannot enter those progressions without the proper credentials. This starts with education.
That said, outside doctor, lawyer, or engineering, what use is there for many of these curriculums. In person schooling is necessary for those fields with lab works, such as medicine.
However, for the majority, there is no need.
Students are starting to wake up to this fact. So many are mired with debt while getting worthless degrees that the younger generations are learning. Attendance at trade schools is up. People, especially young males, are finding the trades to be a more secure path considering the threat of AI and other technology.
This is going to affect these secondary schools first. I would think that UNC-Chapel Hill is doing just fine. It is going to be the second tier universities that are hit. They will do what they can, like eliminating departments where enrollment declines. However, this will keep spreading.
The private institutions are going to get hit first. Nevertheless, as we can see, even the major public university systems are feeling the pinch.
According to Groq, here is the total enrollment in the US:
2019 22,244,000
2020 21,944,000
2021 21,644,000
2022 21,444,000
We can see a total decline of 800K in this four year period. The above article mentioned how UNCA saw a 25% decline in 5 years, thus matching the timeline.
Things are not going to get better. Here is the United States demographic pyramid (from Wikipedia):
Notice what happens in the next few years. The number of students who are college age is going to decline once again. This is going to continue for the next 20 years.
When we couple this with technological trends, the University apocalypse will be in full swing by the early 2030s.