The EU is crumbling before our eyes. We are looking at the fall of a dictatorial regime.
Why do I say the EU is that way? All power resides in Brussels. This is now a centralized, warmongering behemoth that is intent on taking on Russia. It is a move that will lead to WW3.
The latest proposal is the 18th sanction against Putin. It appears the first 17 didn't work so add one more. This is how bureaucrats operate. They keep doubling down on the same flawed policy, in spite of the self harm it causes.
EU membership was suppose to represent the people of Western Europe. Part of this was where all security decisions had to be unanimous. This changed when a vote was taken about scaling against Russia and the funding of Ukraine. Hungary said no. What was the result? The EU changed the protocol to one of simply majority.
The Death of the EU: France Proposes 500% Tariff on Russian Oil
Hungary is also very dependent upon Russia for its oil. More than 60% of that country's oil is from Putin. At the same time, all the Slovakian refineries are geared for Russian oil. This means, a move away would require new infrastructure.
All of this foretells of what is happening in the region.
Economics and geopolitics collide. The EU is a state in decline. We only need to look at the collapse of the German economy, the largest of any EU nation. Spain had a massive power outage, something that has yet to be fully explained. For all the talk of net zero mandates, the zone has fired up coal plants after shutting down nuclear.
Both Hungary and Slovakia have to present plans of how they are going to phase out Russian oil. There is a mandate to have that accomplished by 2027.
The EU doesn't care about individual member states. This much is clear. A lot of the rhetoric is around defending the EU against a Putin takeover. Leaving aside the fact that Putin never mentioned this, it is an impossibility. He has faced difficulty in taking over Ukraine. After seeing that, does anyone thing he can take over Poland, let alone France or Germany.
No chance.
A bigger threat, and one that will be triggered by Article 5, is the use of nukes. If the EU moves on Russia, all bets are off. Putin has hardliners behind him who will not stand for a soft response.
Economic Catastrophe
Putin aside, the EU faces a challenge even if it pulls back from the warmongering.
As an economic zone, it is cooked. The EU will implode under its own weight. The debt load is such that future obligations cannot be met. Leaders in that region most likely see what is coming and will use war as a way to default on the debt.
A sovereign debt crisis is something that is no hiding from. Unlike other issues, such as bank runs, central banks can step in. When there are defaults of sovereign debt, there is nothing anyone can do.
It rapidly becomes an economic catastrophe.
The Keynesian model is dying. Politicians all over the world have borrowed for decades with no intention of paying the debt back. Any lip service to debt reduction was just that.
Buying of votes is commonplace. Elections tend to be simply who can offer the most goodies. Under these circumstances, fraud becomes the accepted norm. Much of it happens in plain site and people accept it as natural.
The economy of Russia is strong, a surprise to many. This can be summed up by the fact that Russia, early on in the conflict, switched to a wartime economy. They advanced military output to not only power their effort but are also selling arms to other nations.
Germany recently stated that it is going to start increasing its military output. It will be fun to see if they can scale considering all the bureaucracy and red tape the Germans are known for. At the same time, unions have enormous power, shutting down production. Will this be circumvented for the EU? We will have to see.
My guess is we have about 7 years (max) for the EU as currently structured. I expect certain countries to leave as we head towards the end of the decade. By 2035, the EU will be a skeleton of itself.