So... things haven't really worked out
I started a 50% power down last month because... it's Q4. We waited 4 years to sell here. But a black swan crash (without being caused by a black swan event) has changed things considerably. Hive went down to 3 cents which I still can't believe and since then momentum has shifted. There is no denying it in my opinion: whatever is to come in the coming weeks remaining won't be enough to even remotely make this an Alt season. I know we cannot call it off definitively until Q4 and perhaps January/February passes, but it's going to be a major disappointment one way or another. Again, we waited 4 years to sell here, and I am not going to sell Hive under $1. I just can't do it. If things start to turn bullish at the very end, there is still some time to power down, but I am not counting on it.
So 2026 is the new 2025?
I have been saying this since almost a year ago unlike most people on X proclaiming it since some weeks ago. Alts needed to have made a significant move over a year ago to "vibe with the cycle". But that never materialized. So the cycle playing out as "ususal" (when we have only 2-3 cycles to rely on) started to seem unlikely somewhat early on.
And then again, there is no reason to believe that the 4 year cycle is just going to continue. It's not a law. It's just a pattern that has played out for some years... I even feel it would add to the unpredictability element that is needed within markets. If everyone simply knows when to buy and when to sell the market wouldn't work at all. Perhaps because people have been too complacent in relying in the 4 year cycle is the exact reason why it' just not materializing this time.
Hopium for Hive
Last week I already had a look at Hive and wondered where things could be heading. Yesterday I looked at the chart again and had some perhaps interesting insights. It's somewhat of a hopium scenario - but honestly, I couldn't even begin to imagine a bear scenario for the coming year. Hive was at 3 cents in Q4 of 2025; are we going to head lower than that?! I doubt it, and Hive would even stop functioning with a Hive price approaching just a couple of cents (HBD debt levels, Hive fund, witnesses etc.).
First the bad: the chart looks as bad as it gets. There is almost no technical support to speak of anymore, with perhaps 10 cents being somewhat of a "floor". The two remaining supports at 18 and 15 cents were obliterated in last weeks. It looks as though Hive is simply in free fall.
Now the perhaps somewhat good news: While support is all but gone, there is a good chance that Hive's pattern is still in play. The pattern is as follows: Each peak in Hive's price happened after price crashed and consolidated for around 2-3 months. The pattern is very pronounced and we are now potentially in such a consolidation phase. If so, price like in 2021 could start to go up again in January.
Outlook: This is the best possible scenario I can think of; the alternative would be for price to stay in the 10s and 20s before finally breaking down again (R.I.P. Hive in that case). Similarly to 2021 we would see price go up, but it would probably get rejected in the 30s (major resistance). After that and until the end of 2026, price would go up and meet at around $1.3. That would be a 10x from current levels.
Conclusion
It feels like 2025 is some sort of a cruel joke for ALT hodlers. While Q4 is not over yet, it's clear to me that the ALT season will be a complete failure (Hive's price is down 80% for 2025!). If so, the 4 year cycle could be shifting and there is at least a slight hope for 2026 being a somewhat better year. Fingers crossed!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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