BTC already in consolidation?
4 years ago I remember how some of us called the end of the bear market for BTC quite early. In hindsight this was the correct assessment as BTC didn't drop sub 10k again and caught many off guard. While it's only been several months from the 126k top, BTC at 50ks might have been the low point already. If you haven't checked the blood moon posts about BTC you might want to give them a try. Remarkably, there actually seems to be a connection that has held well over a decade. Since 3.3 BTC has once again held and even rallied just as what we would have expected. If so, it is time to make a new long term outlook for BTC.
First, here is a chart from 5 weeks ago:
I anticipated a correction back up to the red resistance. We are now exactly here, retesting it. It is still unclear if momentum could hold since there is a lot of geopolitical unrest atm.
So far so good! Again, there is a good chance for price to head back down to the 3.3 60ks area for a general retest of support there. But I am more concerned with the long term outlook today.
2028 outlook
If the blood moon correlation continues to hold, we can expect a general upward market movement until late 2028. I have marked this time frame with the green columns here. Interestingly, many trend lines also converge in this time frame.
The dashed red line at the top is a trend line coming all the way back from 2017. It connects the market tops of 2017 and 2021 and converges at exactly $1 million in 2028. Based on the market movement of 2023-2025 we also have two dotted trend lines which mark an upper boundary between $600k and $1 million. This could be the top range for a market peak in 2028.
The blue support is as of now still shaky. We need more confirmation. However, it could be a rough level of support for the coming years.
This could be a possible projection for price in the coming years. It is not based on any mathematical models, but a "guestimate" based on experience. The middle red line of resistance would obviously be a pretty big resistance (it comes from the 2021 and 2025 peaks).
Conclusions
While it is still very early to make such a long term projection, I feel somewhat confident about it. The last peak for BTC was quite the disappointment, but for now it seems that the bear market (we only saw around 52% correction) has been quite mild in turn. $1 million is obviously a huge psychological pull (just like 100k was), and I think there is a chance we could see BTC go near it in the years to come.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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