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SPS' pattern is seemingly written in stone
The token makes a new lower low/ All Time Low and then rallies quite a bit in the coming weeks or months and then reverses its course to again make a lower low... We have seen this pattern play out for all of SPS's history. So why should this time be different? Well,
- we got utility: SPS now needs to be staked to earn good returns for plying the game
- DEC is about to PEG: actually it has already as of today when it briefly hit around $0.001. Dec hitting its peg signals that the supply of DEC is getting less. Once it's used up (burned or staked), the only way to get DEC is through burning SPS (hence the flywheel).
- Rebellion is launching in 2 days and its main sale on December 5th. This will probably attract new players
- LAND 1.5: we are almost there; in November this year we will finally see it go live. This will (a) eat up a lot of DEC (perhaps all of the supply) and (b) it will require players to use SPL assets to receive SPS making it more difficult to receive and more valuable as such
- SOULKEEP. While it was a massive disappointment that it has not been released yet (it was hinted once that it could come out in Q2 of 2023), it will not doubt shake things up. This will be a whole new game that could perhaps attract more players than the Rebellion expansion
That's quite the list... Also add to that that SPS is literally trading at 1.4 cents now. That means by "just" throwing a bit more than 10 grand in it one can get around 0.1% of the total supply. With a supply of a bit over 1B(!) that says a lot. There is so much coming out in the immediate future that it is hard to think SPS could just continue to drop like that. I have always said that at the 1-2 cents lvl it is simply too low to uphold such a large game with so much value locked in it. The probability of going to at least 10 cents in the next few months or year is quite high imo. With that said: remember that SPS' inflation is still at around 1M a day... that is still a lot, but it won't be once players actually have to burn it.
TA
Here we can see SPS caught in the downward falling wedge (like always) as well as the green curve that I suggested we could see SPS moving along in.
The chart for SPS also reveals one big difference to the past. Just look at the volume.
For the last 2.5 months volume has been increasing 4-5 fold and is now the biggest on record. With a falling price this is a bullish signal. Notice that volume has never increased like this when price was falling in the past.
Conclusion
I am probably naive far once again proclaiming: SPS' bottom is in. But then again, the chart as well as the fundamental developments coming soon out is a game changer imo. The biggest hurdle for SPS will be the high inflation going forward and we will have to see how much we can burn by utilizing the flywheel.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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