New Mini Set in February
3 weeks ago, I argued that SPS was going to around 0.015 rather sooner than later due to the upcoming mini set release. The main reason that cards will receive a discount via SPS and when we do the math that adds up to around $0.015 per SPS. Here is a chart from back then.
We have now seen SPS gain around 20% since then. If we get a green weekly close that would already be 5 green cancdles in a row, but there is still a 70% gap to the price target. With the mini set releasing in just several weeks, I don't think price pressure will decrease, especially since Splinterlands is one of the only Web3 games alive and kicking. This is what really separates SPL to other Web3 games out there. In other words, demand will be there when the set releases.
Although SPS is down something like 99.99% again BTC, we can see a noticeable gain against it over the last few months. SPS is up almost 60% since August of 2025. The real test, of course, is after the sale goes live since until now SPS and DEC have both not been able to hold those gains for long. What we really need to see is a higher low to establish a sustainable upward trend.
The outlook is pretty straightforward. I would expect a price of around 0.015 in the coming weeks with two scenarios unfolding thereafter:
- A price decline to around 0.009 again over several months which could be even lower if the whole crypto market turns bearish. In the best case it would bounce and make a higher low.
- A continuation to around 0.025 where there is at least one bigger resistance (I didn't want to draw too many trend lines here). We'd probably see a correction here too, but it could be based off of the price movement from the previous weeks; obviously this would be quite bullish.
Conclusion
Seems like a free money opportunity here, although anything is possible of course. My main concern is that SPS has never performed very well after a (mini) set was released and we'd need to establish at least a higher low (0.008+ would be nice) before we can long term feel bullish about SPS. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that Splinterlands is the OG in Web3 and that word is starting to spread and get recognized.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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