Well... a bit disappointing
All previous pumps for SPS occurred from bigger sales due to a new set expansion. And we always got a big dump afterwards. I somehow had hoped that it wouldn't be this decisive this time, but here we are. Just 3 weeks ago I posted about the breakout for SPS and things looked pretty good. Here is the chart again:
As I pointed out in the last post, SPS could have potentially gone up to 0.014 since buying the Escalation packs gives a discount until then. But we barely got 0.009 so everybody who bought got a pretty big discount. But now price is back to 0.006 which is less than half of the "target price" and players get an over 50% discount.
Price is barely holding it seems and it looks like we might get a retest of the trend line from which price broke out of. There is some horizontal support until around 0.005. Here is a close up:
The good news I guess is that SPS is still not at ATLs as many other gaming tokens are. But the main question is if price can hold the current thicker blue support which it would need to close above by tonight. Atm it looks as if price will continue to fall though, perhaps to the thinner blue line. In any case, it would be good if the supporting trend line doesn't go into descending mode.
The best case scenario is if we see some sort of value generation after a long descending phase and consolidation phase. If so, we would see price sustainably recover over years perhaps starting in 1-2 years?
Conclusion
The main problem I have with the game is that I am starting to doubt its economy can ever get fixed. While it is still better than most other web3 games, it is clear that there is just too much SPL "stuff" out there (or too little demand - although clearly there is some as we can see from the sales). DEC cannot reach peg because too much gets printed and we can print so much because there is way too much SPS. This could only be fixed if demand stays strong over the years (like literally 2-3+ years) and tokens become deflationary. I honestly wonder if the economy of web3 games can work at all. We have yet to see true value generation.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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