Bitcoin held strong above that 60K for so long.
But it broke below, and now everything is lost.
Plan B was wrong again
Plan B did not see this coming;
But I did, sort of.
Just keep an eye on that last sentence I will be coming back to that later.
A Little History Lesson
Three years ago in December 2021, I sold everything I had at that point. Bitcoin was as high as it was earlier this week. I think it was 63K tbh but what is 3K among friends?
Do you remember that time?
We went up to 63K in April 2021....
Down to 29K by June 2021.....
Hmm, a 50% correction that sounds like a big drop!
That will not happen this time, right?
You are trying to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt, right?
I actually don´t, I am just stating the facts.
No Fud, Just Facts
Now this ain´t 2021, although sometimes I wish it was because then I would be sure that by November 2021 BTC would set that ATH.
And yes I was wrong, but not as wrong as Plan B
I have been calling for months for a dump and a bottom in June and I might still get my way.
Many say that this cycle is different due to less leverage and more institutional money but personally, I think that is poo.
This market is volatile as F and we all know it.
That is a good thing.
It draws people in, processing big gains.
Many can not stand the heat of volatility and leave at a loss.
Leaving money on the table for those with fireproof nerves and balls of steel.
Like I said I saw this coming, but as always it came when I did not expect it. I think most of us know that problem 😁.
I hinted on that dump in May, and well it´s May but it´s too late to sell and go away anyway.
I should have sold in late March, or early April at the latest at 70K BTC. Because even though back to 30K is still possible, I do not expect BTC to lose more than 15K and to bottom out around 40K, that is my worst-case scenario in case of no black swans.
That means that currently, I am exactly between the 73K and the 43K low I forsee.
Hence if the bull is still alive there is more upside than downside in the next 6 months, and I am late to the selling party.
For ALTs it´s a little different:
Worst case scenario your ALTS will go to zero
Expected scenario, your ALT bags will lose another 40%
Like every year I should have sold in early April, but come April I always go well as long as I sell before May and go away till July.
It is as if the May moment always comes early, and this time it came really early. This brings me to my Secondary Scenario
My Secondary Scenario
And this is where it gets interesting; everyone is wrong about the May-June dip.
Now I am coming back to that sentence I highlighted, that sentence about no June dip in the 2020 halving year.
If this scenario is correct, everything is different and it is all Blackrocks fault.
What if the ETF millions have sped up this cycle, what if we are 2-5 months ahead of schedule????
That would put us past that summer dip, right about....... now!
Maybe it´s just me injecting myself with some hopium to get through this period. But the trend is showing we are ahead, breaking the ATH before halving is showing we are ahead, having this dip in April is showing we might be ahead several months... which is in line with that Left Translated Cycle rumor.
A left-translated cycle simply means that, based on the 4-year cycle, we’d get a cycle peak sooner than seen in previous cycles. Everything happens earlier, the ATH, the retracement, the dip, the accumulation, and the next leg up.
TBH I am counting on a normal cycle but if the ETF pushed us to a left-skewed cycle this might be the June Dip. And where October normally bring fresh fiat into the market, this might happen already in August.
Normal process we bottom end of June, in the Secondary scenario we bottom in the next two weeks. June will be accumulation, July slowly moves the needle, market will go up, and the big candle come in August.
Don´t Panic
If you are worried, stop it!
Remember it´s only money!
Keep in mind that this is a game, and if you are taking it too seriously you will lose.
But if you are having fun playing this game you probably remember 2021. You felt that 50% drop to 29K during that long lockdown summer when nothing happened. Then when October came we went from 42K to 66.6K BTC in 3 weeks.
Keep that perspective, this is not a sprint unless you are only into memes ofc.
That is the scenario, maybe a bit earlier, That I expect to play out this year as well. The only question is: 2021 was the post-halving year the year we should peak. Now that the post-halving year is 2025, so if we go above ATH in 2024 will that be the top, or will that be the point Bitcoin finally goes parabolic?
Bikini Bottom Line
Well, let's get to that point first, For now, all I know is that I came early as always. I already used all the dry powder I gathered selling on the way up. I had about $800 from selling ALTs since January and I used it all. I bought everything I sold back at a 20-30% discount, hence increasing all those bags nicely.
But if this cycle is not a leftie, we will have two more months of chopping sideways and downwards ahead of us, without any buy-the-dip funds in my account.
Lesson Learned: Don´t be like me, do not spend all your dry powder already, not unless you are happy buying back at a 30% discount on average.
I was fully invested in early November 2023 and I am fully invested again 6 months later. The only thing I did this initial bull run
My bags are bigger now than when I was fully invested in November and they are not going to get much bigger because I have no stables left.
And I will not invest any fiat unless we go near 40K by the 21st of June.
For now, the ride finally got interesting. The Bore Market is over now let's see how low we go.
And please, if you think I am bearish please check yourself before you get REKT yourself.
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pics by MYI & AI unless watermarked or mentioned)