I hate it if I am told what to do.
But I agree with the guy with the beard for once.
DON'T Sell Your Altcoins To "bUy BaCk LoWeR"
That is what the beard told me last week on the 60K dip
And for once I agreed I do not sell to buy lower....
Why?
Because I already sold, and I am now able to buy back lower.
I was fully invested in November, like full-on invested no dry powder left, maybe 30 USDT split over 4 exchanges.
And I did that on purpose, I saw the future and I had a plan.
The Game
The plan is simple I will play... play the game.
I will buy when it´s uncomfortable when all is low and nobody cares.
Then I will hodl, and set my sells at 2X, at 4X at 8X and at 10X and then hodl the rest till wen moon.
All I have done since November is sit back and wait and see my sells come in.
Wait, there is a bit more to it, keep my ear near the ground so I know what narratives to buy when we dip.
The Dip
Waiting November, Waiting December, Waiting January, Waiting on a dip that never came....
Last cycle I used to do a lot of swingtrading but this time the market was up only for months.
I do not complain about that (too much). I mean my portfolio was 12K in OCT and 28K in March when BTC was at 70K.
But my stables went up from 0% of my portfolio to 5%. Again, there is nothing wrong with taking profits on the way up. But there was a part of the plan I could not execute....buying back.
The Buy Back
Last run I did some baby scalping taking 5-7% on a sale and a buyback. It worked, but I probably would have made almost as much if I had just hodled, and probably even more if would know the right narratives last time and just hodl those.
Hence this time I am only taking the bigger swings, at least 15% and 20% on average. Having a plan is great, but the market did not play into my hand, till now.
The dip to 60.5K finally opened a window of opportunity. I had a couple of coins like RON, FRONT, RAY, LBP, VET, and PYTH that I could buy back at a 20% discount or more.
But not all my buys went through, I still need LTO, PHA, and FTM to drop a bit and RNDR to drop a lot as in another 20% at least.
The good news
The good news, at least for me, is that I do not need to buy them back.
I set my sell orders, and I am glad to take the profit.
I am even happier if I could buy them back at a 20% discount, but there is a big butt.
Especially as I have set an expiration date on my swingtrading and buying back.
I am only buying back till June 2024. Because I expect one more interesting dip in June and I explained why in this post:
Is it Too Late To Buy (More) Crypto or Sell in May & Go Away
But once June passes my buyback opportunities are out the virtual window.
From this summer onwards I expect to have 9 months to the top.
Nine months means that I need to sell 10% of my portfolio each month.
Why?
I do not want to hodl one bag of ALTS by April 2025.
This is gonna be the hardest part.
I will have to block myself from buying, because I only sold 5% from Dec 2023 - Mar 2024.
5% in 4 months, will make selling 10% monthly a challenge.
I am not gonna risk that plan. And 60 - 80% of my sells will probably happen in the last 2 months of the bull market so that 10% a month is an average not a goal.
How Do I Quit My Buy The Dip Additiction?
While writing I realize that buying is a drug, I can´t stop. I need to buy the dip. So from June forward, I will give myself 5% max of my stables, to do some microdosis buying of dips.
And of course, I will put in the insane low liquidity flash crash buys....just in case. Because those do happen:
But those will be 80% dip buys. And I will flip those in an instant so they do not come out of my 5% microdosis budget.
Hope I remember to remove those in May 2025 because last time I had some buys I did not remove when the bears came back, and that kind of mistake, I am not making it a second time.
At least I am not like some peeps who set up buy the dip bids, and then remove them just before they hit... in a bull market.
If I see that I go whywhy?
This time is great to buy the dip, if you were not fully deployed months ago like yours truly.
This might be the latest or the pre-last time (Expecting a June Dip) to buy before the market goes parabolic....as it has always done.
The What If Question
What if 73K was the top, what if this was the shortest bull run in BTC history?
Hey welcome to crypto!
Anything can happen and history does not always repeat...but if it rhymes this time we will see a parabolic move 3 weeks after the ATH.
If that plays out the second week of April would be the window of parabolic opportunity and if you ask me what is more likely.... it´s that we will go Parabo in April.
When And What Question
NFA, but if you want to know what and when I am buying:
I would say buy anything below 60K and wait till May.
Save buys: PYTH, SEI, FTM, COTI, SUI, TRAC.
Risky buys: DAG, GTT, GRAPE. SHRAP, BBL, AZERO.
I think there was not enough pain last week, crypto likes Max Pain, I like Max Pain, and Max Verstappen. Hence I would not be surprised to go to 57K next week and then up from there. So I start buying just below 60K. For those who want to be sure we do not go down any further, you might want to wait till 69K. If we break that, the only way is up.
Bikini Bottom Line
Like I said, this is a game and I play but I like to play it safe.
I am fine losing everything I have invested, but slowly.
I am also fine selling on the way up and not making maximum profits.
The game is a game of math, it´s all about the averages, the available data, the foreseeable future, and the hyped narratives.
If you get those right, you get the prize and then there is only one thing left to do.
Take the prize and get out before the bears eat your profits, , and that Dear Reader is the bottom line.
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pics by MYI & AI unless watermarked or mentioned)