https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1720154499619135581/photo/1
- War_Mapper
Source: @War_Mapper
A magisterial performance from the IDF!
Many serious analysts were saying that Manoeuvre Warfare was dead because of the WWI-like attritional warfare in Ukraine.
In Ukraine, the combination of all-seeing persistent surveillance from drones and very accurate firepower meant that anything that moves is seen, targeted and destroyed.
- Russia had resorted to conducting infantry led offensives through forests and cities because armoured thrusts across open fields had become extremely costly.
- Ukraine's counter-offensive led by advanced western armour was a complete debacle with staggering losses. They too have resorted to infantry led advances.
The pace of advance in Ukraine has been glacially slow on both sides with immense casualties for the attacking side. It is estimated that Ukraine has lost 100,000 men in their counter-offensive.
But Israel has achieved very substantial advances, indeed complete encirclement of the enemy, much through dense urban terrain, with very low casualties (less than 20 at time of writing).
I have examined some of the reasons for this here.
But I want to focus on the most tactically and strategically significant one.
Trophy beats Kornet
While there are many differences from the Ukraine Conflict, the most stunning is the effectiveness of Israel's Active Protection Systems (APS) led by Trophy APS.
Hamas has fired hundreds of anti-tank guided missiles (Kornet) and rocket propelled grenades (mostly RPG-7).They have had a very low success rate, less than 2% in my estimation.
So far there only two examples of Israeli armoured vehicles being destroyed by anti-tank weapons, despite the huge number fired.
A Huge problem for Hamas and Hizbollah
The failure of Kornet and RPGs against Israeli armour is a HUGE problem for Hamas and even more so Hizbollah.
Kornet is their premier weapon, the only seriously advanced and dangerous ranged firepower they have to stop IDF armoured advances.
While Hamas can rely on their tunnels and hidden explosives to inflict some damage, the lack of effective anti-armour ranged firepower is a huge problem for all Iran's proxies.
If Hizbollah continues to escalate (as they did last night) and the IDF goes into Lebanon, the problem will become even more acute because Lebanon is far larger and more open and suitable to Manoeuvre Warfare and long ranged fire battles.
Double Kornet?
Hizbollah does have a double Kornet version (Tharallah Twin ATGM system) that fires two missiles consecutively to try to overwhelm Trophy APS before it can reload. But there are major problems with it.
It is inevitably a more bulky (quadripod) and more observable system.
This makes it more vulnerable to the drone targeted strikes that have already devastated Hizbollah's anti-tank teams.
Secondly, the time lag between firing the first and second Kornet missiles needs to be enough so the second missile is not destroyed by the first Trophy blast. With large numbers of tanks on the move and using smoke and other techniques it will be difficult to hit the same tank twice in short succession.
Thirdly Trophy APS provides an immediate firing solution on the launch point when it detects the incoming missile. The tank can fire on that launch point with its much higher velocity main gun thus eliminating the launching squad before they can get the second missile off. Kornet has a speed of 250-300 m/s while a Merkava IV main gun has a velocity of 1650 m/s.
With very fast AI based firing solution calculation available to the IDF this means that over longer ranges the IDF Tank can hit the firing squad before even the first Kornet reaches the tank thus destroying the laser based targeting mechanism and causing the missile to miss.
A Strategic Problem for Iran
Iran has based its entire genocidal strategy on Kornet equipped proxies and lots of missiles to terrorise the Israeli population.
The Kornets were meant to slow down and impose large casualties on rapid armoured advances by the IDF to over-run the missile launch sites.
Iran hoped that the huge number of missiles could overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome and other anti-missile systems.
But with Kornet being ineffective and the IDF showing it can rapidly advance, even in dense urban areas, this strategy fails.
All Iran's proxies can be over-run and destroyed by rapid IDF armoured advances well before Israel's defensive missiles run out.
Already this strategy has completely failed in Gaza and the number of missiles and rockets fired on Israeli civilians has dropped off considerably (although not to nothing). Very few Israelis (less than 10) have been killed by Hamas rockets and missiles. Iron Dome is well supplied with interceptors and working very well.
Escalation suits Israel
Israel is now in the position to completely eliminate Hamas, Hizbollah and Iran's proxies in Syria thus inflicting a devastating strategic defeat on Iran.
Despite all the bluster and anti-semitism, no country is prepared to intervene militarily on behalf of Iran or its proxies. I have analysed why in this post.
Iran is all alone facing utter destruction of its multi-decade genocidal project to destroy Israel.
Please vote for my Hive witness. (KeyChain or HiveSigner)