It is hard not to notice that SPS token has had a major pump in the last ten days! Here is what SPS chart looks like against the Bitcoin since April 10, 2025. As you can see SPS is up 97.5% and BTC is up 1.77%:
If we zoom out to the last three months here is how this looks:
There is no question that this is a major pump in the price of SPS. The question is how much higher will it go or if we can hold these gains? This is hard question to answer. The pump was somewhat predictable and I have said in my post exactly a week ago that we are likely to go higher when we were at around 0.9 cent and we are now at around 1.4 cent.
Here is the post if you would like to read: @seattlea/where-will-sps-token-be-during-ca-presale-and-core-set-launch
We are just a few days away from the start of the Conclave Arcana presale and we are now up about 158% from the low of 0.54 cent that we had around March 11th.
In my post a week ago I was predicting a 200% run-up in the price of SPS we are getting fairly close to that. If you are a trader that might be the point where it would make sense to lock in some gains. All of my SPS is staked and I am not planning to take profits here. 200% from 0.54 cents would be around 1.64 cents so we have about 0.24 cents to go to reach my target of 200%
If we are a little more aggressive and set a price target similar to what happened during the Chaos Legion SPS pump of 3.5x then we are talking about 2.46 cents which is still 1.06 cents up from the highs of today. Would that happen? I don't know, since Chaos Legion was when we had a lot of excitement in Splinterlands and people were paying something like $7 for a Chaos Legion pack during the presale. This is a different market.
Also, if we compare to the pump during Rebellion launch it visually looks like we are not done yet. Additionally when Rebellion launched we had many DEC faucets which the team has since turned off. We no longer have DEC payed out for the leaderboards for example. So if we do get into the SPS burn for DEC situation the flywheel might actually take us a lot higher than when we got some taste of it during the Rebellion card set launch.
DEC is getting really close to it's peg value:
At 98% of the peg value it is almost reasonable to simply burn SPS for DEC and if we reach the peg value or a little above that is when the flywheel will really start.
So all of this price action in SPS is before I heard anything about marketing or new players if we can sustain the DEC at peg for a little while and we get a major marketing push, it is possible that SPS could get a very big pump as we are starting from a very low price.
Even at these prices we are a very low market cap coin:
With a market cap of around 18.5 million we are at 783rd place on Coinmarketcap. In the Play2Earn category we are among the following peers:
Honestly I have not heard of any of these besides Star Atlas. To get to the names I have head of such as Illuvium we would have to do more than a 3x in our market cap to $67 million dollars. And to reach Axie Infinity we would have to get to the $360 million market cap which is close to 20x from where we are right now:
So if we were to reach a market cap of Axie Infinity then the price of SPS would be 28 cents or a 20x from 1.4 cent we are at right now. Is it possible? I don't know, but it does seem like it would be in the realm of a possibility.
If prices were to approach 20 cents I would seriously consider un-staking some of my SPS tokens so that I can start locking in the profits at around 25 cents and if we were to reach our all time high of $1.27 I would sell all of my SPS because that kind of mega pump would be life changing!
One thing to consider for that kind of a 100x pump from the current levels is that we have a lot more tokens right now than we had in 2021 so the market cap at $1.27 would be above our all time high of $150 million:
Even at double of the $150 million we would not reach the current market cap of Axie Infinity. So what would the market cap be at $1.27?
At that price and assuming about the same amount of tokens we have right now Splinterlands market cap would be at around $1.7 Billion! I can see that happening only if everything goes right AND we get a major altcoin pump with gaming as one of the hot narratives.
I think 50 cents is about as high as we could realistically go. Which would make Splinterlands market cap be around $660 million. But who knows crazier things have happened in crypto and SPS could pump to all time high price for a day or a few hours before crushing back to the earth.
What is your prediction for SPS?
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