With just 7 rounds remaining in the Aviva Premiership, time is closing in on London Irish to make any attempt at survival; the Reading-based side currently sit 12th in the table, 16 points adrift of the in-form Worcester and 19 adrift of the dismal Northampton Saints.
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The short answer is YES. And I'm still very faithful that the poor Northampton Saints will be the ones that face the drop at the end of the season.
With 7 games still to play, London Irish (if they won every game from now) could theoretically pick up another 35 points in this campaign. Very unlikely, but with 4 home games yet to play and some relatively easy away games - I really don't think this relegation battle is over.
The Fixture List:
Worcester (H) - 25th Feb
Wasps (A) - 4th March
Gloucester (H) - 24th March
Harlequins (A) - 7th April
Exeter (H) - 15th April
Saracens (H) - 28th April
Bath (A) - 5th May
The first must-win game is two days from now, on Sunday, playing the in-form Worcester Warriors at the Madejski Stadium. If London Irish manages to beat Worcester and grab a bonus point there, they will see themselves just 3 wins behind.
London Irish fans will be very relieved to hear that Worcester's run is arguably much harder - with London Irish (A), Leicester Tigers (H), Sale Sharks (A), Newcastle (H), Wasps (A), Harlequins (H) and Northampton (A) to play. That being said, Northampton Saints have an even more difficult run - with reigning Champions Exeter (A), Sale Sharks (H), Newcastle (A), Saracens (H), Leicester Tigers (A), Wasps (A) and Worcester (H).
If I were to predict the results of all of those match-ups as we currently speak, taking into account when internationals will be returning to their respective sides (from the Six Nations), it would be as follows;
- London Irish beat Worcester, with no bonus point for either side
- Northampton lose to Exeter, with no losing bonus point
London Irish sit 12 points adrift of Worcester & 15 adrift of Northampton (6 games to go).
- London Irish lose to Wasps, with a losing bonus point
- Worcester beat Leicester Tigers, with no winning bonus point
- Northampton beat Sale Sharks, with no winning bonus point
London Irish sit 15 points adrift of Worcester & 18 points adrift of Northampton (5 games to go).
- London Irish beat Gloucester, with a winning bonus point
- Worcester lose to Sale Sharks, with a losing bonus point
- Northampton lose to Newcastle Falcons, with no losing bonus point
London Irish sit 11 points adrift of Worcester & 13 points adrift of Northampton (4 games to go).
- London Irish beat Harlequins, with a winning bonus point
- Worcester lose to Newcastle Falcons, with a losing bonus point
- Northampton lose to Saracens, with no losing bonus point
London Irish sit 7 points adrift of Worcester & 8 points adrift of Northampton (3 games to go).
- London Irish beat Exeter, with no winning bonus point
- Worcester lose to Wasps, with a losing bonus point
- Northampton lose to Leicester, with no losing bonus point
London Irish sit 4 points adrift of Worcester & Northampton (2 games to go).
- London Irish beat Saracens, with no winning bonus point
- Worcester beat Harlequins, with a winning bonus point
- Northampton lose to Wasps, with no losing bonus point
London Irish and Northampton sit tied at 5 points adrift of Worcester (1 game to go).
- London Irish lose to Bath, with a losing bonus point
- Worcester beat Northampton, with a winning bonus point
Northampton Saints sit 1 point adrift of London Irish & 9 points adrift of Worcester.
Obviously, this is just a prediction, and the likelihood of this happening probably isn't that high. London Irish have talked a lot about how they're going to play aggressive, competitive rugby for the final set of fixtures - and there's still doubt whether that will happen. If they do, and they don't lose to convincingly in the games they do lose, they can still survive. Worcester are arguably the best team in the Aviva Premiership at the moment (maybe behind Bath), but for the last couple of months they've been producing wonderful performances. Northampton should be a lot higher, but they've been awful so far this season - and I really don't see their form improving (they also have Anglo-Welsh fixtures to keep an eye on, so I'm sceptical with their chances).
Give me your thoughts below!