Hello dear gamers and investors! Today will just be a short market update, before I will look deeper into the development of my complete Splinterlands Portfolio by tomorrow.
A crypto crash foiled my plan
On my Portfolio Update from 2th January I told you my plans to buy around 500 Chaos Legion booster packs at the start of the General Sale. The plan was to invest maximum 2.000 €.
1.250 € I invested on the 1st of January into DEC, with the idea to:
not let the money float around on any bank account, but to let it work until needed within the game. With my now more than 300.000 DEC I generate roundabout 32 SPS per Day. Together with the interests from my alredy staked SPS and the vouchers I get per day this leads to generating 8,5 $ (7,47 €) per day. Calculated on my employed capital of 1.563,32 € this leads to an return of round about 0,48 % per day or 174,4 % per year. On equal exchange rates.
Already in this update I stated, that it could be, that the tokens loose some worth until the General Sale, thats is why I did not spend everything at once. But I did not expect such a crash on the crypto market as it is now happening.
Development of Splinterlands tokens in the last 7 days
Hive fell from 1.51 $ to 1.27 $ = - 15,9 %
SPS fell from 0.24 $ to 0.16 $ = -33 %
DEC fell from 0.0048 to 0.0039 $ = -18,7%
Can I still afford to buy my chaos legion packs as planned
So the clear answer to the above question is NO. Now I wont be able to finance the 500 packs. Even 300 packs could become tricky.
The loss in Hive, DEC and SPS is not directly Splinterlands related, but goes hand in hand with a crash of all Cryptocurrencies. Therefore I am of the oppinion, that the prices will rise again in the next weeks or month. Because of this, I am not willing to sell all my tokens in the next days on this price level. On the other hand, I need the money to buy some packs.
My new plan is to buy at least 250 packs + the free bonus packs. I will open between 100 and 200 of these packs and to keep the rest for later. I already have the vouchers for the bonus packs So I need
1.000 $ for the packs and around 90 $ for the potions to open up to 220 packs. All in all 1.090 $.
From the 2.000 € I have 285.68 € left, which I can still invest. On the current exchange rate EUR/USD this is around 325 $. In this post I described a way to get this money into the game quite cheaply. So I calculate with around 320 $ of available funds. In addition I have 20 $ in Credits already in the game.
So I need to sell tokens worth 750 $ to buy and open the packs as planned.
What is the best way
I do not know how the worth of the tokens will change over the next 10 days, until the General Sale starts. To reduce the risk of further loss, I will buy everyday 75.000 Credits using my DEC or Swap.Hive. This will reduce the SPS Airdrop Capacity, but increases my chance to be able to buy the packs at the start of the General Sale.
I will not sell any SPS in this process, since I am very bullish on this token, as long as Splinterlands will be able to fullfill their SPS roadmap for 2022. On the other hand I am pretty sure that DEC will fall heavily shortly before the SPS Airdrop ends, because this is the main cause currently to have DEC at all.
On the 16th I am going to buy SWAP.Hive from my EUR and directly exchange them into credits. So on the 16th I should have my 1.090.000 Credits, to directly start buying at the opening of the General Sale.
Is now a good time to buy Hive, SPS or DEC?
To be honest I am not sure. Everyday I thought the market would turn. At least for Hive and DEC on the daily charts you can see tries to rise, but afterwards there is much sell pressure.
From my expierience with shares I know, that shares that fall, can still fall even further, even though the share already looks very cheap. As long as the selloff of the big cryptos like Ethereum is not stopping I do not think the selloff is over.
On the other hand you will very seldom hit the bottom of the move and if you do not have tokens when they loose worth, you are not having them, when they rise. So at some point it just makes sense to start investing.
I for myself have the issue, that I want to buy something and need liquidity. I made one of the biggest mistakes in speculation and now I am forced to sell. Without this problem I would now start buying small tranches of SPS everyday.
What is your opinion?
How do you think about this crypto crash? What happens to your Splinterlands portfolio? Does it impact your plans for the General sale as well? What are your next investments?
I would be happy to read your comments on this matter.
Happy gaming and investing!
Yours Kheldar1982