The big clash
One of the most highly anticipated UFC fights in years will take place on Saturday. UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya defends his crown against number one contender, Paulo Costa, on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. It will be a clash of personalities and fighter styles.
Costa, the come-forward-brawler from Brazil, seeks to dethrone the slick Nigerian counter-striker in Adesanya. Adesanya rightly dubs it "the bull vs. the matador."
"The skinny guy" vs. "the Ricky Martin wannabe."
Both have been trading insults in the build-up to trading blows for real.
The question is, who will win the fight?
In my view, this fight can go one of two ways. Like a bull-fight, Costa could maul Adesanya early, or Adesanya could pick and pierce Costa apart.
What is the likelihood of either scenario?
I can't see past an Adesanya win.
Long shot
For me, Costa has a punchers chance. Paulo isn't a one-punch knock-out artist. However, he can overwhelm opponents. Is there a chance that Adesanya gets backed up, and Costa unloads bombs and gets Adesanya out of there. Sure there is a chance.
But it is only that, a chance.
Nothing in Adesanya's record shows that he will fold under Costa's pressure, so the Nigerian will need to have an off night for that to happen.
Adesanya is a master of controlling distance. He is adept at avoiding flurries then dictating re-engagement, usually with himself commanding the centre.
One dimensional
For Costa to win, he needs to back Adesanya up against the fence. Costa's style is very one dimensional. He rarely engages in the centre of the Octogan. When he does, it is to back his opponent behind the black line to do his best work. Expect to see Paulo, utilise body kicks, and feint in an effort to push Adesanya back.
I see Adesanya evading Costa's pressure then bringing the fight back to the centre.
No ground play
It will almost certainly be a kickboxing match, despite being a Jiu-Jitsu black belt, I don't see Costa risking zapping his own energy grappling with Adesanya. Adesanya is notoriously difficult to take and keep down. Better grapplers than Costa have failed.
In the stand-up, I believe the finesse of Adesanya will win through. I understand how Costa looks impressive. From the outside, it looks fantastic. Huge crunching blows. He throws everything with mean, knock-out intentions.
However, for me, he loads up too much, making him easy to pick off.
Defeated undefeated contender
The only time I've seen Costa engage in a different style, he came unstuck.
Even though the UFC market Costa as an undefeated fighter, he has lost in The Octagon. Marcio Alexandre Jr beat him in The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3.
His gameplan was to take Alexandre to the ground, and he succeeded in the first round. However, he ran out of gas in the second and ended up losing a decision.
Watch the gas tank
Stamina does appear to be an issue for Costa. He was waning in the third round of the Romero fight despite dictating the pace. He faded in the second round of the Alexandre despite dictating the pace.
Looking beyond the aesthetics, I fully expect Adesanya to win. Costa will be able to hit Adesanya; he may even be able to unload one of his furious flurries. However, if he doesn't get Adesanya out of there early, it's going to be a long night for the Brazillian.
Either way, I expect it to be a showcase — a fascinating night of almost guaranteed action. One not to be missed!