I see Magic Dice is very popular in the realm of Steem, and this is good news in the process of broader adoption of this blockchain. But what is good for the community, is not always the best for the individual, sometimes on the contrary.

In gambling there is one real tough rule: The House (the organizer) always wins. Why? Because he makes the rules, and the rules, mathematically, are guaranteeing this. The House has a fee, so-called “edge”, which goes in his pockets. So, the House can’t lose.

Something unbelievable

This edge can reach 50-60 percent by some types of gambling in the old economy, like costly paper-based lottery tickets. In the modern online world, expenses are more moderate and the edges can be lower. Blockchain solutions are even more “low cost” businesses, and the edges can sink below one percent. That was something unbelievable before.

But the House still always wins, and that means, players always lose. On average and in long term, sure, in short term, everything can happen.

Never 50 percent

Do you think you have a 50 percent chance to win on roulette if you play red or black? No, some percent less because of the green 0 (and 00, if any). That is mostly enough already to make the House always win and being profitable.

Gambling companies are always profitable. If sometimes not, it’s because they spend too much on salaries or other expenses, but their income is sure. If you don’t believe me, you can check the balances of some public companies on stock exchanges.

Impossible possibilities

It’s mathematically impossible for players to have a winning strategy. Not even if the house edge is 0. Because you don't have unlimited money, and every round is independent of the others. If in a casino in one roulette table the number 33 didn’t appear in 10 months, that doesn’t mean it has more chances to happen than before.

(Photo: Pixabay)

Nope. The chance stays always the same in every round. Any strategy related to the statistics of the past will inevitably fail. (Except some card games with certain amount of cards in the box.)

The Martingale system

There is the famous Martingale system where you are always betting double if you lose and return to the minimum bet if you win. It sounds good, but it has two faults. First: your chances are less than 50 percent because of the edge (or the zeros, in roulette, if you want). Second: your losing series can be much longer than your liquidity lasts. I mean: there will come a very long losing strake (series) and you will be out of money. You ‘ll lose everything.

The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. (…) Since a gambler with infinite wealth will, almost surely, eventually flip heads, the martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who advocated it. None of the gamblers possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt "unlucky" gamblers (…) gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero (or less than zero)
Wikipedia

Try it with toy money

I have learned Probability theory in school, but even so, I didn't want to believe this. Once I spent all day with the Martingale system, doubling the bets as I lost etc. At the end of a very boring day of playing, I lost all. Only demo money, fortunately.

Don’t you believe it? Search for some free, trial system with no real money, and prove it. You will lose, I promise (if the numbers/cards/whatever results aren’t manipulated by the system to lure you in real gambling). Or, better, dice at home and note the results in a document, and see if you could afford the maximum strake of bad luck.

Tribute of the fools

Conventional, old style lottery games are often state monopolies, and with 30-50 percent of edge (a lot of taxes and earnings going to the budget) we can call them with a good reason “extra taxes of the fools”. Blockchain gambling with only one percent edge is much better, but basically the same system. You will lose, one day or other, only the exact time is the question.

Does that mean you should never gamble? Yes and no. You can do it if you are very disciplined and are never risking more than a small amount. An amount you can afford to lose having some fun. People play also because it’s entertaining, sure, not only to be rich. But only if you are sure you won’t be addicted. Can you be sure? (I think all addict’s story began so…)

The best social media

Maybe it is much better playing other games, like poker or monopoly, some old card or dice games with friends in the living room Saturday evening. That‘s the best community and social activity…

And one positive argument more: If you by all means, anyhow want to gamble, if you love this and will do it somewhere, than use the games on Steem, or other blockchains. It’s very probably these applications are much cheaper than all conventional ones. And doing so, you are supporting the crypto-space, crypto-adoption.