So here we are
The morning of the biggest fight in combat sport of this era. Whether you think it is going to be spectacular superfight or a farce, it hard to ignore the fact that when Floyd Mayweather meets Conor McGregor in a boxing ring we will be witnessing an extraordinary event in Sport.
Weighing up the chances
I watched the weigh-in last night. And it occurred to me just how extreme the weight cut in MMA is. Yes boxer cut weight but not to the same degree as MMA fighters. I've become accustomed to seeing MMA fighters close to passing out in order to make weight. Then rehydrating and throwing down during the fight like nothing happened.
With the rise of smaller fighters in their weight class achieving success. I'm thinking Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastum at Middleweight. I'm wondering whether there may slowly be a shift away from fighters trying to squeeze into the lowest weight class possible.
If you think about Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson and how he struggled as a welterweight. Yet was an absolute monster with pound-for-pound the hardest punch at light heavyweight. You wonder how many fighters are actually fighting at their optimum.
I think this fight could shed some light on that. I expect McGregor to be the bigger and stronger man come fight night. When he ties up with Mayweather, I don't just expect him to be technically superior in the clinch but to be physically stronger. However one thing that has intrigued me about Mayweather is that he always turns out to be stronger than he looks when he fights. If Mayweather looks strong and is able to compete in the clinch with McGregor, it might be continued cause to question the sanity of extreme weight cutting in MMA.
Fortune-telling
As for the fight. I expect McGregor to put the pressure on Mayweather early and I don't expect Floyd to live up to his pre-fight pledge to reciprocate. I expect Mayweather to concede ground and throw potshots on the back foot.
I think McGregor's window of opportunity exists in the first three of four rounds. In those early rounds he needs to do something no-one has done in 49 fights against Mayweather and that is seriously rock him. If he manages to land on Mayweather then all bets are off and the fight is up for grabs.
However I cannot see it. I see a lot of endeavour from McGregor early. I see a lot of exciting action. But ultimately I don't see much punishment sticking on teflon Floyd. I think after the fourth round McGregor will fatigue. This is when Mayweather will come into his own. I see Floyd systematically breaking down an exhausted McGregor and forcing a stoppage in the eighth round.
However I'm not wedded to any particular result. May the best man win. Occasions like this do not come around too often so I plan to sit back and enjoy.
