I Am Loving It!
I love it when a plan comes together, much more than a stinky McD burger tbh.
ALTs have been dipping since the end of April, even though BTC remained in a range.
This last bit I kinda expected,
Is it Too Late To Buy (More) Crypto or Sell in May & Go Away
Based on this halving chart:
I told you you are not too late but you have to get in by the end of June.
I had a look at the previous years:
This made me pretty damn certain that it would be different this year, but not too different. In a halving year Bitcoin loses less in June, but I forgot to say that it might not apply to ALTS.
This was all back at the end of February when ALTs were still pumping and I was selling batch by batch on the way up. Because things do not go up forever, especially not when June is coming.
And early May I gave y´all a final consego.
It´s Too Late To Sell in May - The June Dip Came Early!
In which I said:
I wished I sold more but I expected BTC to remain in a range between 73K and 45K as the absolute outliers. So far, not bad we did a 54K and a 71K since.
But ALTS were bleeding like soldiers on some Battlefield near Russia.
But as I wrote in Feb there was one piece of hope, that ETH ETF, the one no one expected but ended up coming early.
That gave a small window to sell the news, and I sold all my ETH.
My ETH ETF Baby PowerPlay - Can I Finally Call Myself Smart Money?
And bought most of it back at a great discount!
So yes I can think of myself as smart money now, till I F it up again.
That ETH ETF window closed like the doors of an elevator going down and the price went down with it.
Still, I had stables in my pockets to burn on this June dip and I did.
Or I am still doing, and we are nearing that 40% since early May on most ALTS. And we are also nearing the end of June. Thanks, June, for proving me right.
Why Am I Right
Because everyone and their cat is capitulating and crying, and that is commonly known as the turning point.
My Feed on Tuesday, which btw is normally the worst day:
They are all a bunch of crybabies, because I am sure they all saw it coming and needed a nice clickbait Thumbnail to pull in those few that did not see this coming.
For those who still don't get it:
BTC remains up thanks to the ETF and the Halving
ETH did not go down as hard thanks to the ETF news
Hence ALTs are F ed!
- There is little money coming in during the month of June.
- Many tokens launched in this last period, without new money coming in, so liquidity is moving.
- Rate cuts have not happened yet.
- ETF will kick off in July at the earliest.
These were the outflows last week and you see how often this happens:
If outflows are this large it shows that in the next few weeks, inflows will be larger than outflows. The reason that the previous weeks' inflows did not prevent the ALTs from going down is that the market is overflowed with expensive new hyped ALTs and huge token unlocks.
Without new money coming in that is killing the market and only the strong will survive. So where last time you had a 10% chance of holding a 1000x now your chances are like 1%.
And most of those new coins you bought will not even do a 10X they have been too expensive from the start with a very small initial release to drive up the crazy prices even more.
Take SUI only 25% in circulation....
And TIA is even worse at less than 20%
That is why I am betting on coins like FTM
Or LTO:
Both sit nicely above 80% or if you want to have an even better one Near, as they sit well above 90%:
It used to be the new shiny coins that did the 100Xs but this cycle I am betting on the older, fully diluted projects, that have proven themselves to be the ones that gain the most from the bull.
Most people are starting to see through the dirty games the VCs and projects are playing to drive up the prices before large unlocks.
Any way that on a side note lets get back to the bottom line.
The Bikini Bottom Line
Soon the first peeps are relaxed and ending their holiday so they slowly start looking at the market again.
There will be some ETF stuff coming, causing everything to bottom out.
Then a slow move up till Sep and by OCT we will go PARABO.
June has been proven to be a bad month, but I do see something that worries me.
In the previous halving years we had 4 red months, so far we only had 2.
Hence if we pump like a mofo in Oct & Nov then Dec might be red and so might Sep.
Hence my plan is to be fully invested by June, and bet on a slightly green month in Jul.
Take a little profit before Sep, by that pre-PARABO dip, and be sure to again be fully invested at the start of October.
Now I know that some influencers are calling for another 40% pullback on certain ALTS, but I don't see it.
I think that ETH ETF and the second round of investments after the summer in BTC ETF will keep the market from dumping like a garbage truck.
Of course, I still see the risk at back to 45K BTC but it would take a black swan event. Of which we have seen too many already.
Anyway, let´s hope I am wrong and we have this crazy ETH summer, taking the ALTs up to an ALT SZN in October 2024. Because as soon as those rate cuts come in. And who knows if the China will be true and the ban will be lifted this year.
With the SEC holding off, ETH being a commodity, money printer printing, and Blackrock almost demanding rate cuts from the FED it all seems to be lining up perfectly.
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!